Events
Every day you make decisions without knowing the exact outcome: whether it will rain, whether you will pass an exam, whether you will get a window seat on the bus. Probability puts numbers on that uncertainty, but first we need a precise language to talk about "what can happen". This section sets out that language: what an event is and how events are combined, using the same rules you already use with sets.
Random experiment and sample space
A 2nd-year Bachillerato student is organizing their digital folders of notes. In their "Economía" folder they have 12 PDF files, 8 text documents and 5 diagrams in image…
A 2nd-year Bachillerato student is organizing their digital folders of notes. In their "Economía" folder they have 12 PDF files, 8 text documents and 5 diagrams in image format. If they pick a file at random to review before an exam, determine:
- a) The sample space of the experiment.
- b) The probability that the chosen file is a diagram in image format.
- c) The probability that the chosen file is not a text document.
A ball is drawn from an urn containing 10 balls numbered 1 to 10. Consider the events: $A = \{ \text{drawing an even number} \}$…
A ball is drawn from an urn containing 10 balls numbered 1 to 10. Consider the events:
$A = \{ \text{drawing an even number} \}$
$B = \{ \text{drawing a multiple of 3} \}$
- a) Write down the elements that make up the events $A \cup B$ and $A \cap B$.
- b) Calculate $P(A \cup B)$ using Laplace's rule on the count of their elements.
- c) Verify the previous result by applying the formula $P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B)$.
Operations with events: union, intersection, complement
Since events are sets, they are combined using the same operations you already know: probability does not invent anything new here.
| Operation | Notation | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Union | $A \cup B$ | $A$ occurs, or $B$ occurs, or both |
| Intersection | $A \cap B$ | $A$ and $B$ occur at the same time |
| Complement | $\overline{A}$ | $A$ does not occur (it is $E-A$) |
| Difference | $A-B$ | $A$ occurs but not $B$ (it is $A \cap \overline{B}$) |
In a Year 13 class, a survey on social media use was conducted. Let event $A$ be "using Instagram" and event $B$ be "using TikTok". Define the following situations using…
In a Year 13 class, a survey on social media use was conducted. Let event $A$ be "using Instagram" and event $B$ be "using TikTok". Define the following situations using set operations on events (union, intersection or complement):
- a) The student uses both social networks.
- b) The student uses at least one of the two networks.
- c) The student does not use Instagram.
- d) The student uses Instagram but not TikTok.
In a study on digital content consumption among 16-year-olds, it was found that $70 \%$ use the platform StreamVibe* and $45 \%$ use CloudMusic*. Furthermore, it is…
In a study on digital content consumption among 16-year-olds, it was found that $70 \%$ use the platform StreamVibe and $45 \%$ use CloudMusic. Furthermore, it is known that $25 \%$ of young people do not use either of the two platforms. If a young person is chosen at random, calculate:
- a) The probability that they use both platforms.
- b) The probability that they use StreamVibe only.
- c) The probability that they use CloudMusic but not StreamVibe.
De Morgan's laws
Negating a union or an intersection follows a fixed rule: the same one you will use if you write conditions in code with AND/OR/NOT.
Consider two events $A$ and $B$ associated with a random experiment. If we know that $P(A) = 0,6$, $P(B) = 0,4$ and $P(A \cap B) = 0,2$, calculate the following…
Consider two events $A$ and $B$ associated with a random experiment. If we know that $P(A) = 0,6$, $P(B) = 0,4$ and $P(A \cap B) = 0,2$, calculate the following probabilities:
- a) $P(A \cup B)$
- b) $P(\bar{A})$ (probability of the complement of event $A$).
- c) $P(\bar{A} \cap \bar{B})$ using De Morgan's Laws.
The Venn diagram shows only the data given in the statement.
Let $A$ and $B$ be two events in the same random experiment for which the following probabilities are known: $P(A) = 0,6$, $P(B) = 0,5$ and…
Let $A$ and $B$ be two events in the same random experiment for which the following probabilities are known: $P(A) = 0,6$, $P(B) = 0,5$ and $P(\bar{A} \cap \bar{B}) = 0,2$.
Based on the properties of probability and De Morgan's laws, calculate:
- a) The probability of the union of the events, $P(A \cup B)$.
- b) The probability of the intersection, $P(A \cap B)$.
- c) State with reasons whether the events $A$ and $B$ are compatible or incompatible.
Compatible, incompatible and complementary events
An esports team has players of three nationalities on its roster: 5 Spanish, 3 French and 2 Italian. If a captain is randomly selected for the next tournament,…
An esports team has players of three nationalities on its roster: 5 Spanish, 3 French and 2 Italian. If a captain is randomly selected for the next tournament, calculate:
- a) The probability that they are French.
- b) The probability that they are not Spanish.
- c) Are the events "being Spanish" and "being Italian" compatible or incompatible? Justify your answer.
A Year 13 student has prepared 18 of the 25 topics that make up the Geography syllabus. In the final exam, the teacher chooses two topics at random (without…
A Year 13 student has prepared 18 of the 25 topics that make up the Geography syllabus. In the final exam, the teacher chooses two topics at random (without replacement). Calculate:
- a) The probability that the student knows both topics.
- b) The probability that they know neither.
- c) The probability that they know at least one of the two selected topics.
Let $A$ and $B$ be two events in a random experiment such that their probabilities are $P(A) = x$ and $P(B) = y$. It is known that the union event has a probability of…
Let $A$ and $B$ be two events in a random experiment such that their probabilities are $P(A) = x$ and $P(B) = y$. It is known that the union event has a probability of $P(A \cup B) = 0,75$ and that the intersection event satisfies $P(A \cap B) = 0,15$.
If it is also known that the probability of $A$ occurring given that $B$ does not occur is $P(A | \bar{B}) = 0,5$, determine the values of $x$ and $y$. Are $A$ and $B$ compatible events? Are they independent?
Back to the beginning: When you get on the bus, the sample space according to your seat is $E=\{\text{window}, \text{aisle}\}$; getting a window seat is a simple event, and not getting one is exactly its complementary event.