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Prep 3 SS · Mathematics
Chance and probability · Probability

Laplace's Rule (Classical Probability)

Before you start, make sure you know: Counting Techniques (High School Year 2 (semesters 3 and 4))

In your class's holiday raffle, 200 tickets were sold and you bought 4. How likely is it that you win? If every ticket has the same chance as the others, all you have to do is count: your tickets out of the total. That is Laplace's rule. At this level you already know the formula. The challenge is counting correctly when the cases number in the thousands or millions.

What "at random" means: equally likely events

Two spinners: one with four equal sectors, whose outcomes are equally likely, and another with one large sector, whose outcomes are not equally likely. 12 43 4 equal sectors different sectors: NOT equally likely
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A spinner divided into $12$ equal sectors, numbered from $1$ to $12$, is used. Calculate the probability that when the spinner is spun, the pointer stops on: a) A number…

A spinner divided into $12$ equal sectors, numbered from $1$ to $12$, is used. Calculate the probability that when the spinner is spun, the pointer stops on:

  1. a) A number divisible by $3$.
  2. b) A number that is a perfect square (such as $1, 4, 9$).
  3. c) A number greater than $2$ and less than $7$.
n=12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Ω = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}
Solve
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We toss two fair coins into the air simultaneously. a) Write the sample space of the experiment. b) What is the probability of getting exactly one head? c) What is the…

We toss two fair coins into the air simultaneously.

  1. a) Write the sample space of the experiment.
  2. b) What is the probability of getting exactly one head?
  3. c) What is the probability of getting at least one tail?
Solve

Laplace's rule: favorable over possible

Eight possible cases, three of them favorable, giving a probability of 3 out of 8. 3 favorable 8 possible P(A) = 3/8

Some exercises use the Spanish deck of 40 cards. It has 4 suits (coins, cups, swords, and clubs) and 10 cards per suit: from 1 (ace) to 7, plus jack, knight, and king. It has no 8s, 9s, or jokers.

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In a role-playing game, a player rolls an eight-sided die (octahedron) with faces numbered $1$ to $8$. If the die is fair, calculate the following probabilities using…

In a role-playing game, a player rolls an eight-sided die (octahedron) with faces numbered $1$ to $8$. If the die is fair, calculate the following probabilities using Laplace's rule:

  1. a) Getting an even number.
  2. b) Getting a number greater than $5$.
  3. c) Getting a prime number.
8 2 4 7 Sample space (Ω) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 equally likely outcomes
Solve
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A card is drawn at random from a Spanish deck of $40$ cards. Determine the probability of the following events: a) The card is an ace. b) It is a cup. c) It is the king…

A card is drawn at random from a Spanish deck of $40$ cards. Determine the probability of the following events:

  1. a) The card is an ace.
  2. b) It is a cup.
  3. c) It is the king of coins.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 10 11 12 Coins Cups Swords Clubs 10 Cups 4 Aces 1 King of Coins Total: 40 cards
Solve
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If we choose a letter at random from the word ESTADISTICA, determine the probability of the following events: a) The letter is a vowel. b) The letter is S. c) The letter…

If we choose a letter at random from the word ESTADISTICA, determine the probability of the following events:

  1. a) The letter is a vowel.
  2. b) The letter is S.
  3. c) The letter is a consonant.
Solve
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At a board game festival, two fair six-sided dice (with faces from 1 to 6) are used. A player rolls both dice at the same time. The table shows the sum of the scores for…

At a board game festival, two fair six-sided dice (with faces from 1 to 6) are used. A player rolls both dice at the same time. The table shows the sum of the scores for each possible outcome (rows: die 1; columns: die 2).

Two-way table with the sums of the scores of two dice, each numbered from 1 to 6 Die 2 Die 1 123456 123456 234567 345678 456789 5678910 67891011 789101112

Calculate the probability that the sum of the scores obtained is a prime number greater than $5$.

Solve

Compound events: complement, union, and tables

Often it is easier to count what we do not want, or to combine several events. Three tools are enough.

With data from a survey or from several sets, a Venn diagram or a contingency table organizes the counting. In a Venn diagram, fill it in from the inside out: first the intersection of all the sets, then the intersections of two (subtracting what has already been placed), and finally the parts that belong to only one set.

Venn diagram of two sets, YouTube and Spotify, with 20 only in YouTube, 10 in both, 15 only in Spotify, and 5 in neither. 20 10 15 5 YouTube Spotify
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In a drawer there are $10$ black socks, $6$ blue socks and $4$ white socks, all loose. If we pick one at random to go to school, calculate: a) The probability that it is…

In a drawer there are $10$ black socks, $6$ blue socks and $4$ white socks, all loose. If we pick one at random to go to school, calculate:

  1. a) The probability that it is blue.
  2. b) The probability that it is not white.
  3. c) The probability that it is black or white.
Ω 10 black 6 blue 4 white Total = 20
Solve
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A group of Year 13 students is organising a raffle for the end-of-year trip. They have sold tickets numbered from $1$ to $100$. If the draw is made by picking a number…

A group of Year 13 students is organising a raffle for the end-of-year trip. They have sold tickets numbered from $1$ to $100$. If the draw is made by picking a number at random, find the probability that the winning number:

  1. a) Is a multiple of $10$.
  2. b) Ends in the digit $7$.
  3. c) Is a number less than $15$.
Solve
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In a class there are $30$ students, of whom $18$ are girls and $12$ are boys. It is known that $10$ girls and $8$ boys like the math podcast "Derivando". If you organise…

In a class there are $30$ students, of whom $18$ are girls and $12$ are boys. It is known that $10$ girls and $8$ boys like the math podcast "Derivando". If you organise the data in a contingency table (girls/boys versus like/dislike) and choose a student at random, calculate the probability that the student:

  1. a) Is a boy.
  1. b) Is a girl who likes the podcast.
  1. c) Is a person who does not like the podcast.
Solve
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A survey was conducted at a school on social media use. Of the $100$ Year 13 students, it is known that $65$ use TikTok, $40$ use Instagram and $15$ use neither of the…

A survey was conducted at a school on social media use. Of the $100$ Year 13 students, it is known that $65$ use TikTok, $40$ use Instagram and $15$ use neither of the two applications. If we select a student at random, calculate the probability that:

  • a) They use both social networks.

  • b) They use TikTok but not Instagram.

Solve
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A study is carried out on streaming content consumption habits among young people in a city. It is known that: $65\%$ have a subscription to platform N. $50\%$ have a…

A study is carried out on streaming content consumption habits among young people in a city. It is known that:

  • $65\%$ have a subscription to platform N.

  • $50\%$ have a subscription to platform D.

  • $45\%$ have a subscription to platform H.

  • $30\%$ are subscribed to N and D.

  • $25\%$ are subscribed to N and H.

  • $20\%$ are subscribed to D and H.

  • $10\%$ are subscribed to all three platforms.

If a young person is chosen at random, calculate the probability that they are subscribed to only one of the three platforms.

As a hint, only the region for all three platforms has been filled in on the Venn diagram; complete the remaining regions yourself.

Venn diagram with three sets N, D and H inside the universe of young people, with 10% written in the intersection of the threeNDH10%
Solve

Counting with order: with and without replacement

When there are thousands of cases (a PIN, a password), you do not list them: you use the multiplication principle. If you choose in $k$ steps and each step has $m_1, m_2, \dots, m_k$ options, there are $m_1 \cdot m_2 \cdots m_k$ outcomes.

  • With replacement (repeats allowed): each step has the same number of options. A 3-digit PIN has $10 \cdot 10 \cdot 10 = 1{,}000$ cases.

  • Without replacement (no repeats): the options go down by 1 at each step. This is an arrangement of $r$ elements out of $n$: $nPr = n(n-1)\cdots(n-r+1) = \dfrac{n!}{(n-r)!}$.

A palindromic code is determined by its first digits (the rest are copied), and a password with conditions by type (letters and digits) is counted by choosing positions first and characters afterward.

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To log into an online banking app, a random PIN code of $4$ digits (from $0$ to $9$) is generated. Calculate the probability that the assigned code meets the following…

To log into an online banking app, a random PIN code of $4$ digits (from $0$ to $9$) is generated. Calculate the probability that the assigned code meets the following conditions:

  • a) All its digits are distinct.

  • b) It is a palindromic number (it reads the same from left to right as from right to left).

Solve
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In a lottery drum there are $10$ balls numbered from $0$ to $9$. Two balls are drawn successively with replacement (the first is returned before drawing the second).…

In a lottery drum there are $10$ balls numbered from $0$ to $9$. Two balls are drawn successively with replacement (the first is returned before drawing the second). Calculate the probability that the number formed by both digits (considering the first as tens and the second as units) is a multiple of $4$ or a number greater than $75$.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Draw ? ? Tens Units Replacement (returned) Number formed 00 - 99 Condition Multiple of 4 or > 75
Solve
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We roll three fair six-sided dice (numbered from 1 to 6) and record the outcomes as $(d_1, d_2, d_3)$. Calculate the probability that the product of the three numbers…

We roll three fair six-sided dice (numbered from 1 to 6) and record the outcomes as $(d_1, d_2, d_3)$. Calculate the probability that the product of the three numbers obtained is a perfect square (for example: $1 \times 2 \times 2 = 4 = 2^2$).

× × = d₁ × d₂ × d₃ = k² Example: 1 × 2 × 2 = 4 = 2²
Solve
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A computer security system requires a 6-character password. The user must choose these characters from the set formed by the 26 lower-case letters of the alphabet and…

A computer security system requires a 6-character password. The user must choose these characters from the set formed by the 26 lower-case letters of the alphabet and the digits from 0 to 9. If the system automatically generates a password at random, what is the probability that it contains exactly 2 digits, 4 letters and, furthermore, no character is repeated?

Solve

Permutations: arranging people and letters

Arranging $n$ distinct elements in a row can be done in $n!$ ways. If there are conditions like "these two together," you use the block method: glue the group together, permute the blocks, and then permute within each block.

Circular table. If the only thing that matters is who sits next to whom, rotating everyone one position changes nothing. That is why $n$ people at a round table can be arranged in $(n-1)!$ ways (one person is fixed and the others are arranged).

When a condition says "not together," use the complement: total minus "together." With words like ALGORITMO, separate vowels and consonants: first choose which positions each group occupies, and then permute each group.

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A group of $5$ friends (Ana, Borja, Clara, David and Elena) are going to pose in a line for a graduation photo. If they stand at random, calculate the probability that…

A group of $5$ friends (Ana, Borja, Clara, David and Elena) are going to pose in a line for a graduation photo. If they stand at random, calculate the probability that Ana and Elena appear next to each other in the photo.

Solve
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Using the letters of the word $ALGORITMO$, all possible permutations are formed. If one of these arrangements is chosen at random, calculate the probability that the…

Using the letters of the word $ALGORITMO$, all possible permutations are formed. If one of these arrangements is chosen at random, calculate the probability that the resulting word begins and ends with a consonant, and also that all the vowels appear together somewhere in the string.

Solve
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At a Year 13 graduation dinner, 8 friends sit at a circular table. Among them are a couple, Alicia and Bruno, who have had an argument and do not want to sit together,…

At a Year 13 graduation dinner, 8 friends sit at a circular table. Among them are a couple, Alicia and Bruno, who have had an argument and do not want to sit together, and two other friends, Nerea and Thiago, who are inseparable and must sit next to each other. If the seats are assigned completely at random, calculate the probability that the wishes of all four friends are fulfilled simultaneously.

Solve

Combinations: choosing when order doesn't matter

Diagram for choosing: if order does not matter, combinations; if order matters, arrangements. order does NOT matter choose 5 of 15 combinations order DOES matter 4-digit PIN arrangements

When there are two groups ("3 strategy and 2 reflex games"), you multiply the combinations for each group. If there are several ways to meet the condition ("at least 3"), you add the cases for each way.

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From a Spanish deck of $40$ cards, two cards are drawn simultaneously (which is equivalent to drawing one after another without replacement). Calculate the probability…

From a Spanish deck of $40$ cards, two cards are drawn simultaneously (which is equivalent to drawing one after another without replacement). Calculate the probability that:

  • a) Both cards are of the same suit.

  • b) At least one of the cards is an Ace.

Solve
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In a glass urn for a raffle at a tech store, there are $12$ white balls and $8$ black balls. Three balls are drawn at random, one by one and without replacement.…

In a glass urn for a raffle at a tech store, there are $12$ white balls and $8$ black balls. Three balls are drawn at random, one by one and without replacement. Applying Laplace's rule to the sample space of equiprobable elementary events, determine the probability that the three drawn balls are of the same color.

Probability: Laplace's Rule Draw of 3 balls without replacement 12 White, 8 Black 3 draws without replacement ? ? ? Same color? or P = ?
Solve
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In an eSports club, a team of 5 players is to be selected for a national tournament. 15 candidates have entered the selection process: 8 strategy specialists and 7…

In an eSports club, a team of 5 players is to be selected for a national tournament. 15 candidates have entered the selection process: 8 strategy specialists and 7 reflex specialists. The tournament rules require the team to have at least 3 strategy specialists and at least 1 reflex specialist. If the board chooses the 5 members at random from among all the candidates, calculate the probability that the team strictly complies with the rules.

8 Estrategia 7 Reflejos Choose 5 at random Equipos válidos (≥ 3 Estrategia y ≥ 1 Reflejos) 3 Est. + 2 Ref. OR 4 Est. + 1 Ref.
Solve
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Three cards are drawn simultaneously from a standard Spanish 40-card deck. Calculate the probability that the sum of the values of the three cards is exactly 10. (For…

Three cards are drawn simultaneously from a standard Spanish 40-card deck. Calculate the probability that the sum of the values of the three cards is exactly 10. (For this exercise, consider picture cards: jack, knight, and king, to have values of 8, 9, and 10 respectively, and the ace to be worth 1).

Solve

Extension: geometric probability

When the sample space is a continuous region, you cannot count the points, but you can measure.

Square target with an inscribed circle; the probability of landing outside the circle is the area of the square minus the area of the circle, over the area of the square. circle square
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An aiming video game consists of throwing a virtual dart at a square target of side length $20\text{ cm}$ that has an inscribed orange circle. The program guarantees…

An aiming video game consists of throwing a virtual dart at a square target of side length $20\text{ cm}$ that has an inscribed orange circle. The program guarantees that the dart always hits somewhere on the square at random (equally likely). Calculate the probability that the dart hits outside the orange circle. (Consider $\pi \approx 3.14$).

r 20 cm
Solve
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A graphic design application generates a random pattern by placing a point $P$ inside a circle of radius $R = 10 \text{ cm}$. A square of side length $L = 8 \text{ cm}$…

A graphic design application generates a random pattern by placing a point $P$ inside a circle of radius $R = 10 \text{ cm}$. A square of side length $L = 8 \text{ cm}$ is inscribed in the center of the circle. The application's algorithm considers it a "visual hit" if point $P$ falls inside the square or in the region of the circle above the horizontal diameter but outside the square. Using the concept of geometric probability (extension of Laplace's Rule for areas), calculate the probability of getting a "visual hit" in one attempt.

R = 10 L = 8 P
Solve

Back to the beginning: if your 4 tickets are among 200 equally likely ones, you win with probability $\frac{4}{200} = 0.02$, that is, $2\%$. That is Laplace's rule: favorable over possible.

Summary

See all the exercises in this section