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Secondary 1 · Mathematics
Chance and probability · Probability

Relative frequency and experimental probability

You flip a coin 10 times and get 7 heads. Does that mean the coin is loaded? Not necessarily: with only a few flips, chance can surprise you. If you flip it 1,000 times, the result gets much closer to half. Let's see why.

Relative frequency of an event

Horizontal bar representing 45 made shots (75%) and 15 misses on a scale of 60 free throws. 45 made shots (75%) 15 misses 0 15 30 45 60 shots made shots misses
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We flipped a coin $50$ times and heads came up $28$ times. a) What is the absolute frequency of "heads"? And of "tails"? b) Calculate the relative frequency of "heads"…

We flipped a coin $50$ times and heads came up $28$ times.

  1. a) What is the absolute frequency of "heads"? And of "tails"?
  2. b) Calculate the relative frequency of "heads" as a fraction and as a decimal.
  3. c) And the relative frequency of "tails"?
Solve
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A basketball player has scored $45$ of her last $60$ free throws taken. a) What is her relative frequency of scoring? b) If she takes a free throw tomorrow, what…

A basketball player has scored $45$ of her last $60$ free throws taken.

  1. a) What is her relative frequency of scoring?
  2. b) If she takes a free throw tomorrow, what experimental probability would you assign to her scoring it? Express it as a fraction, as a decimal and as a percentage.
Solve

Relative frequency gets closer to probability

Roll the die many times and watch how the bars (what actually comes up) get closer to the orange line (what "should" come up if the die is fair, that is, $\frac{1}{6}$ for each face):

That proportion that the relative frequency approaches is what we call experimental probability. If the die is fair, we expect each face to have a relative frequency close to $\dfrac{1}{6} \approx 0.167$. For example, in $60$ rolls we expect about $10$ per face, but not exactly $10$ each.

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A group of students rolls a die $60$ times and records the results: $1$ comes up $8$ times; $2$, $11$ times; $3$, $9$ times; $4$, $10$ times; $5$, $13$ times; and $6$,…

A group of students rolls a die $60$ times and records the results: $1$ comes up $8$ times; $2$, $11$ times; $3$, $9$ times; $4$, $10$ times; $5$, $13$ times; and $6$, $9$ times.

  1. a) Construct the table of absolute and relative frequencies (the latter to three decimal places).
  2. b) What "theoretical" relative frequency would you expect for each face if the die is fair? Express it as a fraction and as an approximate decimal.
  3. c) Which outcome was furthest from expected? Do you think the die is rigged? Justify your answer taking into account the number of rolls.

You can do it on paper and send a photo with your answer.

Solve
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A board game club organizes a raffle with a spinner of $5$ equal sectors numbered from $1$ to $5$. Before the draw, a spectator tests it by spinning it $500$ times and…

A board game club organizes a raffle with a spinner of $5$ equal sectors numbered from $1$ to $5$. Before the draw, a spectator tests it by spinning it $500$ times and gets: $1$ comes up $97$ times; $2$, $103$ times; $3$, $98$ times; $4$, $101$ times; and $5$, $101$ times.

  1. a) Calculate the relative frequencies of each number.
  2. b) What theoretical probability does each number have if the spinner is fair?
  3. c) Does the spinner seem balanced? Reason your answer.
Solve

When we can't know ahead of time

Sometimes there is no reason to think the outcomes are equally likely: a thumbtack when it lands, a die that seems lopsided. In those cases we experiment and use the relative frequency as an estimate of the probability.

A bar divided into two parts: a thumbtack tossed 200 times lands point up 76 times and on its side 124 times, with estimated probabilities of 0.38 and 0.62. A thumbtack tossed 200 times: point up: 76 on its side: 124 P ≈ 76/200 = 0.38 P ≈ 124/200 = 0.62
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In the playground, students play dropping a drawing pin: it can land point up or on its side. After $200$ drops, the drawing pin landed point up $112$ times. a)…

In the playground, students play dropping a drawing pin: it can land point up or on its side. After $200$ drops, the drawing pin landed point up $112$ times.

  1. a) Calculate the relative frequency of "point up" and of "on its side".
  2. b) What experimental probability would you assign to each outcome?
  3. c) Why can we not use Laplace's rule in this experiment to say that each outcome is equal to $\frac{1}{2}$?
Solve
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The graph shows how the relative frequency of the event "getting heads" changes as a coin is tossed more and more times. a) Which value does the relative frequency…

The graph shows how the relative frequency of the event "getting heads" changes as a coin is tossed more and more times.

P = 0.5 (theoretical) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 10 100 1000 10000 Number of tosses Relative frequency (fᵢ) 0.40 0.55 0.47 0.52 0.50 Relative frequency
  1. a) Which value does the relative frequency approach as the number of tosses becomes very large?
  2. b) Why do you think the fluctuations are large at the beginning and small at the end?
  3. c) If we flipped the coin $100,000$ times, what relative frequency would you expect to get, approximately? And how many heads?
  4. d) Does this graph contradict the statement "in $10$ tosses, $5$ heads must come up"? Reason your answer.
Solve
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Two basketball players boast about their accuracy: Lara has scored $12$ of her last $20$ free throws. Miriam has scored $45$ of her last $100$ free throws. a) Calculate…

Two basketball players boast about their accuracy:

  • Lara has scored $12$ of her last $20$ free throws.

  • Miriam has scored $45$ of her last $100$ free throws.

  1. a) Calculate the relative frequency of scoring for each player.
  2. b) Which of the two has a better success rate?
  3. c) The coach has to choose one of them to take the decisive shot and says: "I trust Miriam's data more because it comes from many more shots." What does he mean? Do you agree with his reasoning? Argue using what you know about relative frequency.
Solve
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A math app simulates rolling a die $10,000$ times and obtains these results: $1$ comes up $1,660$ times; $2$, $1,668$ times; $3$, $1,655$ times; $4$, $1,670$ times; $5$,…

A math app simulates rolling a die $10,000$ times and obtains these results: $1$ comes up $1,660$ times; $2$, $1,668$ times; $3$, $1,655$ times; $4$, $1,670$ times; $5$, $1,647$ times; and $6$ comes up $2,700$ times.

  1. a) Calculate the relative frequency of each outcome, to four decimal places.
  2. b) If the virtual die were fair, what relative frequency would you expect for each face, approximately?
  3. c) Which face do you suspect is "loaded"? Justify your answer by comparing the obtained frequencies with the expected ones.
Solve

Back to the beginning: 7 heads in 10 flips (relative frequency $0.7$) does not prove that the coin is loaded, because $10$ flips are too few. With $1{,}000$ flips and, say, $700$ heads, we would indeed be suspicious.

Summary

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