Properties of probability
In 1st Bachillerato you saw that the Laplace rule is just a particular case of a more general definition: the Kolmogorov axioms. This year you will use them constantly to solve problems with data from companies, sensors or networks, where there are no longer "equally likely cases" to count: only given probabilities. Review the axioms and what follows from them in a single pass; it is the foundation of the whole block on conditional probability that comes next.
Kolmogorov's axioms
An urn contains numbered balls. Let the events be $A$ = "drawing an even number" and $B$ = "drawing an odd number less than 5". If we know that $P(A) = 0,5$,…
An urn contains numbered balls. Let the events be $A$ = "drawing an even number" and $B$ = "drawing an odd number less than 5". If we know that $P(A) = 0,5$, $P(B) = 0,2$ and that the events are mutually exclusive, calculate the probability of the union $P(A \cup B)$.
Probability of the complement and of the impossible event
A study on digital habits reveals that the probability of a teenager using a microblogging social network is $P(S) = 0,72$. Calculate the probability of the…
A study on digital habits reveals that the probability of a teenager using a microblogging social network is $P(S) = 0,72$.
Calculate the probability of the complementary event, that is, the probability that a teenager chosen at random does not use that social network.
Using De Morgan's Laws, calculate the probability that neither event $A$ nor event $B$ occurs (that is, $P(\bar{A} \cap \bar{B})$), knowing that the probability of the…
Using De Morgan's Laws, calculate the probability that neither event $A$ nor event $B$ occurs (that is, $P(\bar{A} \cap \bar{B})$), knowing that the probability of the union is $P(A \cup B) = 0,84$.
The probability of the union
On a streaming platform, $65\ \%$ of young users are subscribed to the Music Plan ($M$) and $40\ \%$ are subscribed to the Video Plan ($V$). It is also known that…
On a streaming platform, $65\ \%$ of young users are subscribed to the Music Plan ($M$) and $40\ \%$ are subscribed to the Video Plan ($V$). It is also known that $25\ \%$ of users enjoy both plans simultaneously.
Calculate the probability that a user chosen at random is subscribed to at least one of the two plans (music or video).
Let $A$ and $B$ be two events such that $P(A) = 0,4$, $P(B) = 0,5$ and $P(A \cup B) = 0,7$. Determine whether the events $A$ and $B$ are compatible or mutually…
Let $A$ and $B$ be two events such that $P(A) = 0,4$, $P(B) = 0,5$ and $P(A \cup B) = 0,7$. Determine whether the events $A$ and $B$ are compatible or mutually exclusive, justifying your answer by calculating $P(A \cap B)$.
In a study on digital content consumption in a Year 13 class, it is known that the probability of a student regularly using TikTok (event $A$) is $0,65$, the probability…
In a study on digital content consumption in a Year 13 class, it is known that the probability of a student regularly using TikTok (event $A$) is $0,65$, the probability of using Instagram (event $B$) is $0,70$ and the probability of using neither of the two social networks is $0,15$.
Using the properties of probability, calculate:
- a) The probability that a student, chosen at random, uses both social networks.
- b) The probability that they use only one of the two.
- c) Are the events $A$ and $B$ independent? Justify your answer.
Venn diagrams with proportional areas
Drawing a Venn diagram so that each region has an area proportional to its probability is a visual way of checking that the calculations are consistent: the whole of $E$ must have total area $1$, and no probability can ever be missing or left over.
At a sports center, $60\%$ of the members do strength training (event $F$) and $45\%$ do yoga (event $Y$). It is also known that $20\%$ of those who do strength training…
At a sports center, $60\%$ of the members do strength training (event $F$) and $45\%$ do yoga (event $Y$). It is also known that $20\%$ of those who do strength training are also enrolled in yoga.
Construct a contingency table or a Venn diagram to answer the following questions:
- a) Probability that a randomly chosen member does neither strength training nor yoga.
- b) If we know that a member does yoga, what is the probability that they do not do strength training?
- c) Are the events "doing strength training" and "doing yoga" independent?
You can do it on paper and send a photo with your answer.
Bounds on an unknown intersection
The axioms do not only give equalities: they also let us bound a probability when a piece of data is missing, using the fact that no probability can exceed $1$ or be negative.
Consider two events $A$ and $B$ of a random experiment. It is known that $P(A) = 0,6$ and $P(B) = 0,7$. Based on Kolmogorov's axioms, prove that: 1. The minimum possible…
Consider two events $A$ and $B$ of a random experiment. It is known that $P(A) = 0,6$ and $P(B) = 0,7$.
Based on Kolmogorov's axioms, prove that:
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The minimum possible value for $P(A \cap B)$ is $0,3$.
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The maximum possible value for $P(A \cap B)$ is $0,6$.
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If a third event $C$ is added such that $P(C) = 0,8$, what is the minimum value of the probability that all three events occur simultaneously, $P(A \cap B \cap C)$? Justify your answer using Bonferroni's inequality: $P(A \cap B) \geq P(A) + P(B) - 1$.