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Randomness and probability · Probability

Properties of probability

In 1st Bachillerato you saw that the Laplace rule is just a particular case of a more general definition: the Kolmogorov axioms. This year you will use them constantly to solve problems with data from companies, sensors or networks, where there are no longer "equally likely cases" to count: only given probabilities. Review the axioms and what follows from them in a single pass; it is the foundation of the whole block on conditional probability that comes next.

Before you start, make sure you know: Events (1st Bachillerato)
Before you start, make sure you know: Definitions (1st Bachillerato)

Kolmogorov's axioms

Visual outline of Kolmogorov's three fundamental axioms: non-negativity, certain sample space and additivity. Axiom 1: P(A) ≥ 0 Axiom 2: P(E) = 1 Axiom 3: A∩B=∅ ⟹ P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)
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An urn contains numbered balls. Let the events be $A$ = "drawing an even number" and $B$ = "drawing an odd number less than 5". If we know that $P(A) = 0,5$,…

An urn contains numbered balls. Let the events be $A$ = "drawing an even number" and $B$ = "drawing an odd number less than 5". If we know that $P(A) = 0,5$, $P(B) = 0,2$ and that the events are mutually exclusive, calculate the probability of the union $P(A \cup B)$.

Solve

Probability of the complement and of the impossible event

Set diagram illustrating the complementary event and inclusion for the monotonicity property. A Ā P(A) P(Ā) P(A) + P(Ā) = P(E) = 1
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A study on digital habits reveals that the probability of a teenager using a microblogging social network is $P(S) = 0,72$. Calculate the probability of the…

A study on digital habits reveals that the probability of a teenager using a microblogging social network is $P(S) = 0,72$.

Calculate the probability of the complementary event, that is, the probability that a teenager chosen at random does not use that social network.

Solve
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Using De Morgan's Laws, calculate the probability that neither event $A$ nor event $B$ occurs (that is, $P(\bar{A} \cap \bar{B})$), knowing that the probability of the…

Using De Morgan's Laws, calculate the probability that neither event $A$ nor event $B$ occurs (that is, $P(\bar{A} \cap \bar{B})$), knowing that the probability of the union is $P(A \cup B) = 0,84$.

Solve

The probability of the union

Venn diagram with three overlapping sets and their central triple intersection. A B C A∩B∩C
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On a streaming platform, $65\ \%$ of young users are subscribed to the Music Plan ($M$) and $40\ \%$ are subscribed to the Video Plan ($V$). It is also known that…

On a streaming platform, $65\ \%$ of young users are subscribed to the Music Plan ($M$) and $40\ \%$ are subscribed to the Video Plan ($V$). It is also known that $25\ \%$ of users enjoy both plans simultaneously.

Calculate the probability that a user chosen at random is subscribed to at least one of the two plans (music or video).

Solve
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Let $A$ and $B$ be two events such that $P(A) = 0,4$, $P(B) = 0,5$ and $P(A \cup B) = 0,7$. Determine whether the events $A$ and $B$ are compatible or mutually…

Let $A$ and $B$ be two events such that $P(A) = 0,4$, $P(B) = 0,5$ and $P(A \cup B) = 0,7$. Determine whether the events $A$ and $B$ are compatible or mutually exclusive, justifying your answer by calculating $P(A \cap B)$.

Solve
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In a study on digital content consumption in a Year 13 class, it is known that the probability of a student regularly using TikTok (event $A$) is $0,65$, the probability…

In a study on digital content consumption in a Year 13 class, it is known that the probability of a student regularly using TikTok (event $A$) is $0,65$, the probability of using Instagram (event $B$) is $0,70$ and the probability of using neither of the two social networks is $0,15$.

Using the properties of probability, calculate:

  1. a) The probability that a student, chosen at random, uses both social networks.
  2. b) The probability that they use only one of the two.
  3. c) Are the events $A$ and $B$ independent? Justify your answer.
E A P(A)=0,65 TikTok B P(B)=0,70 Instagram ? P(Aᶜ ∩ Bᶜ) = 0,15
Solve

Venn diagrams with proportional areas

Drawing a Venn diagram so that each region has an area proportional to its probability is a visual way of checking that the calculations are consistent: the whole of $E$ must have total area $1$, and no probability can ever be missing or left over.

Venn diagram with areas proportional to their probabilities inside the total sample space. E (total area = 1) A B A∩B
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At a sports center, $60\%$ of the members do strength training (event $F$) and $45\%$ do yoga (event $Y$). It is also known that $20\%$ of those who do strength training…

At a sports center, $60\%$ of the members do strength training (event $F$) and $45\%$ do yoga (event $Y$). It is also known that $20\%$ of those who do strength training are also enrolled in yoga.

Construct a contingency table or a Venn diagram to answer the following questions:

  1. a) Probability that a randomly chosen member does neither strength training nor yoga.
  1. b) If we know that a member does yoga, what is the probability that they do not do strength training?
  1. c) Are the events "doing strength training" and "doing yoga" independent?

You can do it on paper and send a photo with your answer.

Solve

Bounds on an unknown intersection

The axioms do not only give equalities: they also let us bound a probability when a piece of data is missing, using the fact that no probability can exceed $1$ or be negative.

Segment on the real line marking the minimum and maximum possible bounds for the probability of an intersection. P(A∩B) lies in here 01 minimum max(0, P(A)+P(B)−1) maximum min(P(A), P(B))
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Consider two events $A$ and $B$ of a random experiment. It is known that $P(A) = 0,6$ and $P(B) = 0,7$. Based on Kolmogorov's axioms, prove that: 1. The minimum possible…

Consider two events $A$ and $B$ of a random experiment. It is known that $P(A) = 0,6$ and $P(B) = 0,7$.

Based on Kolmogorov's axioms, prove that:

  1. The minimum possible value for $P(A \cap B)$ is $0,3$.

  2. The maximum possible value for $P(A \cap B)$ is $0,6$.

  3. If a third event $C$ is added such that $P(C) = 0,8$, what is the minimum value of the probability that all three events occur simultaneously, $P(A \cap B \cap C)$? Justify your answer using Bonferroni's inequality: $P(A \cap B) \geq P(A) + P(B) - 1$.

Solve

Summary

See all the exercises in this section