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Randomness and probability · Probability

Random experiments

In 1st Bachillerato you already worked with events and probabilities rigorously. Before tackling conditional probability, Bayes' theorem and combinatorics —the main block of this course, very much present in the EvAU— it is worth reviewing in a single pass the basic language: what an event is and how it is combined with others. If you already have this down pat, so much the better: everything that follows rests on it without any room for doubt.

Before you start, make sure you know: Events (1st Bachillerato)

Sample space and events

Sample space of eight numbers showing an isolated simple event and a compound event with four outcomes. E = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8} 5 simple event {2, 3, 5, 7} compound event
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Classify the following experiments as deterministic or random, briefly justifying your answer in each case: a) Dropping a smartphone from a height of one metre and…

Classify the following experiments as deterministic or random, briefly justifying your answer in each case:

  1. a) Dropping a smartphone from a height of one metre and observing whether it falls towards the ground.
  2. b) Opening a playlist in shuffle mode and noting down the first song that plays.
  3. c) Calculating the time it takes for a car to travel $200$ km if it travels at a constant speed of $100$ km/h.
  4. d) Asking the first person you see in the street in which month they were born.
  5. e) Drawing a card from a Spanish deck of $40$ cards and observing its suit.
Solve
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We draw a ball from an urn containing $5$ balls numbered from $1$ to $5$. State whether the following events are possible, certain or impossible: a)…

We draw a ball from an urn containing $5$ balls numbered from $1$ to $5$. State whether the following events are possible, certain or impossible:

  1. a) $A = \text{"getting a number greater than 0"}$.
  2. b) $B = \text{"getting the number 7"}$.
  3. c) $C = \text{"getting an even number"}$.
  4. d) $D = \text{"getting a number less than or equal to 5"}$.
  5. e) $F = \text{"getting a negative number"}$.
Solve

Operations with events

An event is a set, so it is combined using the same operations you already know from sets: probability does not invent anything new here, it just reuses them.

Operation Notation Meaning
Union $A \cup B$ $A$ occurs, or $B$, or both
Intersection $A \cap B$ $A$ and $B$ occur at the same time
Complement $\overline{A}$ $A$ does not occur (it is $E-A$)
Difference $A - B$ $A$ occurs but not $B$ (it is $A \cap \overline{B}$)
Venn diagram of two events: the union is the whole shaded area of both circles and the intersection is the overlap. A B A ∩ B A ∪ B = everything shaded
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In a 2nd Baccalaureate group, subscriptions to streaming platforms are analysed. We let $A$ be the event "being subscribed to Netflix" and $B$ be the event "being…

In a 2nd Baccalaureate group, subscriptions to streaming platforms are analysed. We let $A$ be the event "being subscribed to Netflix" and $B$ be the event "being subscribed to Spotify". Express in words the meaning of the following events related to set operations:

  1. a) $A \cup B$
  2. b) $A \cap B$
  3. c) $\bar{A}$ (or the complementary event of $A$)
  4. d) $A - B$
  5. e) $\bar{A} \cap \bar{B}$
Solve
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In a new strategic board game, a player must roll a tetrahedral die (faces numbered $1$ to $4$) and, simultaneously, draw a card from a reduced deck containing only the…

In a new strategic board game, a player must roll a tetrahedral die (faces numbered $1$ to $4$) and, simultaneously, draw a card from a reduced deck containing only the four Aces and the four Kings of a Spanish pack of cards.

Considering the random experiment of recording the number on the die and the value of the card (Ace or King):

  1. a) Describe the sample space $E$ of the experiment.
  2. b) Let the events be:

$A$ = "Get an even number on the die".

$B$ = "Get an Ace of any suit".

$C$ = "Get a number less than $3$ on the die and a King card".

Determine the elements comprising the events $A \cup B$, $A \cap B$ and $B \cap C$.

Solve

De Morgan's laws

Venn diagrams representing the first De Morgan law: the complement of the union is equivalent to the intersection of the complements. A ∪ B complement = outside both = Ā ∩ B̄
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Let $E = \{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8\}$ be the sample space of a random experiment. Given the events $A = \{1, 3, 5, 7\}$ and $B = \{2, 3, 5, 8\}$, obtain the following…

Let $E = \{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8\}$ be the sample space of a random experiment. Given the events $A = \{1, 3, 5, 7\}$ and $B = \{2, 3, 5, 8\}$, obtain the following sets:

  1. a) $A \cup B$
  2. b) $A \cap B$
  3. c) $A \cap \bar{B}$
  4. d) Check whether De Morgan's First Law holds: $\overline{A \cup B} = \bar{A} \cap \bar{B}$.
Solve
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Let $A, B$ and $C$ be any three events of a random experiment. Prove formally, using the properties of the algebra of events (distributive, complementation, etc.), the…

Let $A, B$ and $C$ be any three events of a random experiment. Prove formally, using the properties of the algebra of events (distributive, complementation, etc.), the following identity:

$$(A \cup B) - (A \cap B) = (A \cap \overline{B}) \cup (\overline{A} \cap B)$$

Explain what name this operation is given in set theory and represent the resulting event using a shaded Venn diagram.

Solve

Compatible and incompatible events

Visual comparison in Venn diagrams between compatible events with an overlap and incompatible disjoint events. AA∩BB compatible(they touch) AB incompatible
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Observe the following Venn diagram representing the distribution of students playing Basketball ($B$) and Football ($F$) at a municipal sports centre. From the graph,…

Observe the following Venn diagram representing the distribution of students playing Basketball ($B$) and Football ($F$) at a municipal sports centre.

E B F ∩

From the graph, define the following regions using event operations:

  1. a) Students who play both sports.
  2. b) Students who play basketball but not football.
  3. c) Students who play at least one of the two sports.
  4. d) Students who play neither of the two sports mentioned.
Solve
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In a mobile app development environment, a programmer is testing the security of an access system. A random experiment is defined, consisting of generating a random…

In a mobile app development environment, a programmer is testing the security of an access system. A random experiment is defined, consisting of generating a random 4-digit code using only the numbers $\{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6\}$. The following events are considered:

  • $A$: "The code contains at least two consecutive equal digits".

  • $B$: "The sum of the digits of the code is a prime number greater than 15".

  • $C$: "The code is a palindrome (it reads the same from left to right as from right to left)".

Describe the sample space $E$ in detail, stating its cardinality, and use the algebra of events to symbolically express the following events:

  1. a) The code is not a palindrome or the sum of its digits is not a prime number greater than 15.
  1. b) The code is a palindrome and has at least two consecutive equal digits, but the sum of its digits is not a prime number greater than 15.
  1. c) Determine whether events $A$ and $C$ are compatible or incompatible, justifying your answer with an example of an element of the sample space.
Solve

Summary

See all the exercises in this section