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BAC2 tech · Mathematics
Randomness and probability · Probability

Combinatorics

You already know the four counting techniques — variations with and without repetition, permutations and combinations — from 1st Bachillerato. Here they appear again, but put to work with Laplace's rule in the most demanding university entrance exam problems: passwords with restrictions, teams formed from several groups, codes with fixed digits. The challenge is no longer remembering the formulas, but identifying which one to use for each part of the problem.

Before you start, make sure you know: Counting techniques (1st Bachillerato)
Before you start, make sure you know: Laplace's rule (2nd ESO)

Quick review: the four techniques

Decision diagram for choosing the counting technique depending on whether order matters, whether all the elements are involved and whether they are repeated. does order matter? yes → variations / permutations does order matter? no → combinations C(n,k) are elements repeated? yes → VR = nᵏ · no → V = n!/(n−k)! ALL are arranged without repetition → Pₙ = n!
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A 2nd-year Bachillerato student wants to set up a $4$-digit access code with different digits for their gym locker. They decide to use only the odd digits…

A 2nd-year Bachillerato student wants to set up a $4$-digit access code with different digits for their gym locker. They decide to use only the odd digits $\{1, 3, 5, 7, 9\}$ and cannot repeat any digit.

  1. a) How many different codes can they create?
  1. b) If the student forgets the code but remembers that the first digit was a $7$, how many different codes would they have to try at most?
Solve

Positional restrictions: fixed digits or letters

Diagram of four boxes showing the reduction in available options when the first position is fixed in a code without repetition. 7 × ? × ? × ? fixed: 1 option free: counted with what is left
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In a robotics championship, a team must select $3$ representatives from a group of $8$ students to present the project to the panel of judges. a) In how many different…

In a robotics championship, a team must select $3$ representatives from a group of $8$ students to present the project to the panel of judges.

  1. a) In how many different ways can the group of representatives be chosen if the selection order does not matter?
  1. b) If among the $8$ students there are $2$ who specialise in programming and it is decided that at least one of them must be in the group, how many different selections are possible?
Solve
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A streaming platform is designing a new custom interface. For the user profile, an avatar can be chosen by combining the following elements: 4 different face shapes, 5…

A streaming platform is designing a new custom interface. For the user profile, an avatar can be chosen by combining the following elements: 4 different face shapes, 5 types of hairstyle and 3 styles of glasses. In addition, the username must be a 5-character string consisting of 3 lower-case letters (from a 26-letter alphabet) followed by 2 digits.

  1. a) How many different avatars can be created?
  2. b) How many distinct usernames can be generated if neither letters nor digits can be repeated?
  3. c) If a user decides to choose their avatar and username at random (under the conditions of part b), what is the probability that their name starts with the letter "z" and ends with the digit "9"?
5 Hairstyles 4 Faces 3 Glasses USER ID z a b 3 Letters (26) 1 9 2 Digits (10)
Solve

Several groups at once: separate combinations and Laplace

Diagram of the multiplication principle combining 20 ways of choosing biologists with 6 ways of choosing chemists to give 120 options. C(6,3) = 20 biologists × C(4,2) = 6 chemists 20 · 6 = 120 ways
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Three phone operators, $M_1$, $M_2$ and $M_3$, handle $40\%$, $35\%$ and $25\%$ of customer service call centre calls, respectively. The percentage of calls that drop…

Three phone operators, $M_1$, $M_2$ and $M_3$, handle $40\%$, $35\%$ and $25\%$ of customer service call centre calls, respectively. The percentage of calls that drop unexpectedly for each operator is $2\%$, $3\%$ and $4\%$, respectively.

A call is chosen at random and turns out to have dropped. Calculate the probability that it was handled by operator $M_1$.

Solve
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A cybersecurity system uses two filters to detect phishing emails. Filter A detects $92\%$ of these emails, whilst Filter B detects $88\%$. Due to the structure of the…

A cybersecurity system uses two filters to detect phishing emails. Filter A detects $92\%$ of these emails, whilst Filter B detects $88\%$. Due to the structure of the system, an email is analysed by Filter B only if it has not been detected by Filter A. If an email is not detected by either filter, it reaches the user's inbox. It is estimated that $3\%$ of the emails received in the company are phishing attempts.

  1. a) What is the probability that a phishing email reaches the inbox?
  2. b) If an email has reached the inbox, what is the probability that it is actually a phishing email?
Email Incoming Phishing Legitimate FILTER A Detects 92% Blocked FILTER B Detects 88% Blocked Inbox (False Negative) Inbox (Safe Email) 0,03 0,97 0,92 0,08 0,88 0,12 Passes undetected (100%)
Solve

Repeated elements and compulsory blocks

Diagram of grouping elements into a single block that moves between the different positions of a sequence. 5 pieces (4 loose + 1 block) block abc 3! internal arrangements total = 5! × 3!
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A cybersecurity team is analysing the vulnerability of an access system that uses passwords of $8$ characters. The allowed characters are the $26$ letters of the…

A cybersecurity team is analysing the vulnerability of an access system that uses passwords of $8$ characters. The allowed characters are the $26$ letters of the alphabet (case-insensitive) and the digits from $0$ to $9$. A password is considered "strong" if it meets the following conditions:

  1. It contains exactly $2$ distinct numbers and $6$ letters.

  2. The letters cannot be repeated.

  3. The two numbers must be in consecutive positions.

Calculate:

  1. a) The total number of strong passwords that can be generated.
  2. b) If brute-force software generates a random password following only the structure of $8$ characters (letters or numbers), what is the probability that it guesses a specific strong password on the first attempt?
Alphabet: 26 letters (6 distinct chosen) Digits: 10 numbers (2 distinct chosen) L₁ L₂ L₃ N₁ N₂ L₄ L₅ L₆ Block of 2 consecutive digits 7 possible positions in the string
Solve

Identifying the right technique: exam strategy

Fraction of Laplace's rule showing that favourable and possible cases must be calculated with the same order criterion. favourable: same criterion possible: same criterion = P(event) by Laplace
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A courier company uses drones to deliver packages in a city. The probability of a drone suffering a technical breakdown during a delivery flight is $0,02$. The company…

A courier company uses drones to deliver packages in a city. The probability of a drone suffering a technical breakdown during a delivery flight is $0,02$. The company makes $250$ daily deliveries independently.

  1. a) Justify whether the variable "number of daily breakdowns" can be approximated by a normal distribution. If so, state its parameters.
  2. b) Using the appropriate approximation, calculate the probability that on a given day exactly $5$ breakdowns occur.
  3. c) Calculate the probability that between $3$ and $8$ breakdowns occur (inclusive).
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 No. of breakdowns (X) Probability Correction: P(2,5 ≤ X' ≤ 8,5) 4,5 to 5,5 X ~ B(250, 0,02) a) X' ~ N(?, ?) b) P(X = 5) = ? c) P(3 ≤ X ≤ 8) = ? p = 0,02
Solve
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A survey of 250 students at a technology centre was carried out regarding their use of operating systems. The results are shown in the following contingency table: | |…

A survey of 250 students at a technology centre was carried out regarding their use of operating systems. The results are shown in the following contingency table:

Intermediate Vocational Higher Vocational Total
Mainly uses Windows 85 65 150
Mainly uses Linux 40 60 100
Total 125 125 250

If a student is chosen at random, calculate:

  1. a) The probability that they are a Higher Vocational student and mainly use Linux.
  2. b) Given that the student mainly uses Windows, what is the probability that they are an Intermediate Vocational student?
  3. c) Are the events "being a Higher Vocational student" and "mainly using Linux" independent? Give reasons for your answer.
Solve

Summary

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