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ESO Y1 · Mathematics
Chance and probability · Probability

Relative frequency and experimental probability

You toss a coin 10 times and get heads 7 times. Does that mean the coin is biased? Not necessarily: with only a few tosses, chance can surprise you. If you repeat it 1000 times, the result gets much closer to half.

Relative frequency of an event

Horizontal bar diagram representing 45 scores (75 %) and 15 misses out of 60 free throws. 45 scores (75 %) 15 misses 0 15 30 45 60 throws scores misses
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We flipped a coin $50$ times and heads came up $28$ times. a) What is the absolute frequency of "heads"? And of "tails"? b) Calculate the relative frequency of "heads"…

We flipped a coin $50$ times and heads came up $28$ times.

  1. a) What is the absolute frequency of "heads"? And of "tails"?
  2. b) Calculate the relative frequency of "heads" as a fraction and as a decimal.
  3. c) And the relative frequency of "tails"?
Solve
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A basketball player has scored $45$ of her last $60$ free throws taken. a) What is her relative frequency of scoring? b) If she takes a free throw tomorrow, what…

A basketball player has scored $45$ of her last $60$ free throws taken.

  1. a) What is her relative frequency of scoring?
  2. b) If she takes a free throw tomorrow, what experimental probability would you assign to her scoring it? Express it as a fraction, as a decimal and as a percentage.
Solve

Relative frequency gets closer to probability

Roll the die many times and watch how the bars (what actually comes up) get closer to the orange line (what "should" come up according to Laplace's rule):

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A group of students rolls a die $60$ times and records the results: $1$ comes up $8$ times; $2$, $11$ times; $3$, $9$ times; $4$, $10$ times; $5$, $13$ times; and $6$,…

A group of students rolls a die $60$ times and records the results: $1$ comes up $8$ times; $2$, $11$ times; $3$, $9$ times; $4$, $10$ times; $5$, $13$ times; and $6$, $9$ times.

  1. a) Construct the table of absolute and relative frequencies (the latter to three decimal places).
  2. b) What "theoretical" relative frequency would you expect for each face if the die is fair? Express it as a fraction and as an approximate decimal.
  3. c) Which outcome was furthest from expected? Do you think the die is rigged? Justify your answer taking into account the number of rolls.

You can do it on paper and send a photo with your answer.

Solve
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In the playground, students play dropping a drawing pin: it can land point up or on its side. After $200$ drops, the drawing pin landed point up $112$ times. a)…

In the playground, students play dropping a drawing pin: it can land point up or on its side. After $200$ drops, the drawing pin landed point up $112$ times.

  1. a) Calculate the relative frequency of "point up" and of "on its side".
  2. b) What experimental probability would you assign to each outcome?
  3. c) Why can we not use Laplace's rule in this experiment to say that each outcome is equal to $\frac{1}{2}$?
Solve

When Laplace's rule cannot be used

Sometimes we do not know whether the outcomes are equally likely (a drawing pin as it falls, a die that seems slightly lopsided). In those cases, we experiment many times and use the relative frequency as an estimate of the probability.

Diagram of two proportional rectangles with the results of tossing a drawing pin 200 times: 140 times point up (0,7) and 60 times on its side (0,3). A drawing pin tossed 200 times: point up: 140 on its side: 60 P(point up) ≈ 140/200 = 0,7 P(on its side) ≈ 60/200 = 0,3
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The graph shows how the relative frequency of the event "getting heads" changes as a coin is tossed more and more times. a) Which value does the relative frequency…

The graph shows how the relative frequency of the event "getting heads" changes as a coin is tossed more and more times.

P = 0,5 (theoretical) 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 10 100 1000 10000 Number of tosses Relative frequency (fᵢ) 0,40 0,55 0,47 0,52 0,50 Relative frequency
  1. a) Which value does the relative frequency approach as the number of tosses becomes very large?
  2. b) Why do you think the fluctuations are large at the beginning and small at the end?
  3. c) If we flipped the coin $100.000$ times, what relative frequency would you expect to get, approximately? And how many heads?
  4. d) Does this graph contradict the statement "in $10$ tosses, $5$ heads must come up"? Reason your answer.
Solve
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Two basketball players boast about their accuracy: Lara has scored $12$ of her last $20$ free throws. Miriam has scored $45$ of her last $100$ free throws. a) Calculate…

Two basketball players boast about their accuracy:

  • Lara has scored $12$ of her last $20$ free throws.

  • Miriam has scored $45$ of her last $100$ free throws.

  1. a) Calculate the relative frequency of scoring for each player.
  2. b) Which of the two has a better success rate?
  3. c) The coach has to choose one of them to take the decisive shot and says: "I trust Miriam's data more because it comes from many more shots." What does he mean? Do you agree with his reasoning? Argue using what you know about relative frequency.
Solve

Summary

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