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Prep 3 SS · Economics and Business Administration
Business strategy and analytical methods: case studies · Ex-ante evaluation of business models

Forecasting Revenue and Costs: The Break-Even Point

Ximena wants to open an agua fresca stand at a tianguis (open-air street market). "I think it's going to work" is not a plan, it's a hope. Before paying for the spot and buying the jugs, there is one very concrete question: how many cups do I have to sell to start making money?

Revenue, Costs, and the Break-Even Point

Break-even chart with the total revenue and total cost lines, marking q* at their intersection and the zones of losses and profits between them q (units) pesos CF TC TR q* losses profits
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Explain in your own words what the break-even point is, and what selling above or below it means.

Explain in your own words what the break-even point is, and what selling above or below it means.

Solve
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The figure represents total revenue (IT) and total costs (CT) of a business as a function of units sold, with fixed costs (CF) as a benchmark. Explain what the point…

The figure represents total revenue (IT) and total costs (CT) of a business as a function of units sold, with fixed costs (CF) as a benchmark. Explain what the point marked with '?' represents and what occurs in the loss and profit regions.

q $ CF CT IT q* ? losses profits
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The Break-Even Formula

Why divide this way? Each unit sold "contributes" its margin to a pot that must be filled with the fixed costs. The number of contributions needed is $CF$ divided by the margin.

Diagram of the contribution margin: a price of 150 pesos minus a variable cost of 90 pesos leaves a margin of 60 pesos price p150 pesos var. cost CV_u90 pesos margin60 pesos p − CV_u
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The break-even formula is $q^* = \frac{CF}{p - CV_u}$. Identify what each term represents (CF, p, CV_u) and explain the meaning of the denominator, known as the unit…

The break-even formula is $q^* = \frac{CF}{p - CV_u}$. Identify what each term represents (CF, p, CV_u) and explain the meaning of the denominator, known as the unit contribution margin.

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A company has fixed costs of $\$120\,000$ per month, sells its product for $\$600$ per unit, and each unit costs $\$360…

A company has fixed costs of $\$120\,000$ per month, sells its product for $\$600$ per unit, and each unit costs $\$360$ to produce. a) Calculate the monthly break-even point using the formula $q^* = \frac{CF}{p - CV_u}$. b) Explain what this number means for the company.

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An entrepreneur plans to sell T-shirts with fixed costs of $\$5,000$ per year. He intends to set a selling price of $\$10$, even though his manufacturing variable cost…

An entrepreneur plans to sell T-shirts with fixed costs of $\$5,000$ per year. He intends to set a selling price of $\$10$, even though his manufacturing variable cost is $\$11$ per T-shirt. In his business plan, he states: “Even though the unit margin is negative, if we reach a large enough sales volume, total revenues will exceed total costs and we will cover fixed costs.” a) Refute the entrepreneur's claim both quantitatively and conceptually: demonstrate using the profit function why it is mathematically impossible to reach the break-even point, and calculate the losses if he were to sell 5,000 T-shirts. b) To make the project viable, a mentor demands that the break-even point be set at a maximum of 1,000 T-shirts. If market constraints prevent the price from exceeding $\$14$, determine analytically: 1) The maximum allowable unit variable cost while maintaining fixed costs at $\$5,000$. 2) The percentage reduction in fixed costs required if the unit variable cost could only be lowered to $\$10.5$.

Solve

Beyond the Break-Even Point: Profit and Levers

This answers a common question: if a store has a break-even of 500 T-shirts, in a month with 400 sales it loses and with 620 it gains, with no need to know the dollar amounts. Each T-shirt above 500 contributes its full margin as profit.

Diagram of the three levers, each with its own arrow toward a lower break-even point: raise the price, lower fixed costs, or lower the unit variable cost raise price lower CF lower CV_u lower q*
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The break-even point for a shop is 500 T-shirts per month. In June it sold 400 and in July 620. Indicate in which month it made a loss and in which a profit, reason why…

The break-even point for a shop is 500 T-shirts per month. In June it sold 400 and in July 620. Indicate in which month it made a loss and in which a profit, reason why it is not necessary to know the exact amounts to know this, and explain what each T-shirt sold above 500 represents.

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A bakery has a break-even point of 2 000 cakes per year. Analyse three levers to lower it — raising the price, reducing fixed costs, and reducing unit variable cost —…

A bakery has a break-even point of 2 000 cakes per year. Analyse three levers to lower it — raising the price, reducing fixed costs, and reducing unit variable cost — explaining how each one acts on the formula and what risk using it entails.

Solve

Decisions: Capacity, Viability, and Alternatives

The break-even point is useful for making decisions. First, compare the break-even with what can actually be sold and produced.

Making is also compared with buying: the total costs of both options are set equal and the indifference quantity is obtained.

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A coffee shop is open 25 days a month with 12 four-seater tables and offers a single lunch shift. Its monthly fixed costs are $\$4,500…

A coffee shop is open 25 days a month with 12 four-seater tables and offers a single lunch shift. Its monthly fixed costs are $\$4,500$, the price per set menu is $\$12$, and the variable cost per menu is $\$7$. a) Calculate the break-even point in set menus per month and the average table occupancy rate needed to avoid incurring losses. b) If the demand forecast for the next month is $60\ \%$ of its maximum capacity, the business would incur losses. To prevent this, two alternatives are considered: 1) Offer a premium set menu at $\$15$ with a unit variable cost of $\$8.5$, maintaining fixed costs. 2) Reduce fixed costs by $20\ \%$ by renegotiating the rent, keeping the initial price and variable cost. Calculate the new break-even point for each alternative and justify which one allows the business to be profitable with the forecasted demand.

Solve
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A food stall chain is hesitating between a city center location (fixed costs of $\$120\,000$ per month, price $\$180$, unit variable cost $\$80…

A food stall chain is hesitating between a city center location (fixed costs of $\$120\,000$ per month, price $\$180$, unit variable cost $\$80$, and 1.400 expected units) or a neighborhood location (fixed costs of $\$40\,000$, same price and variable cost, and 500 expected units). a) Calculate the break-even point and the expected profit of each option. b) Recommend one, also assessing the risk if actual sales fall 20% below expectations.

Solve

Back to the beginning: Ximena knows how many cups to sell if she calculates $q^* = CF / (p - CV_u)$: it is the volume that covers all the fixed costs and marks the point from which each extra cup leaves a profit.

Summary

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