Forecasting: key trends and macroeconomic variables

Explain the difference between a company's micro-environment (immediate actors: customers, suppliers, competitors) and macro-environment (general forces), giving two examples of each.

Classify these elements as microenvironment or macroenvironment of a sports shop: a strike by its main supplier, a change of government, the opening of a competing shop on the same street and the shift in young people's habits towards outdoor sports.

A PESTEL analysis classifies environmental factors into political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal. Classify these events: a VAT increase, an ageing population, a new waste management law, the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence, a rise in interest rates, and a government grant for entrepreneurship.

Classify these facts under the corresponding letter of the PESTEL analysis: a rise in the minimum wage, the boom in delivery apps, climate awareness, a rule requiring recyclable packaging, the fall in the birth rate and a tax deduction for buying electric cars.

A washable eco-friendly nappy brand wants to launch. Carry out a PESTEL analysis with one reasoned factor per letter and point out which of the six you think can boost its sales the most, justifying it.

Explain what a country's GDP measures and what it tells a household appliance company about the demand it can expect if GDP grows or if the economy enters a recession.

Explain what inflation is and what happens to the margin of a bakery whose costs (flour, electricity) rise by 8% if it decides not to raise prices so as not to lose customers.

The central bank raises interest rates from $1\ \%$ to $4\ \%$. Analyse how this macroeconomic variable affects an SME with a variable-rate loan of $100.000\ \text{€}$ and the sales of a furniture shop that finances its customers' purchases.

Paddle tennis has been growing in Spain for years. Apply the criteria for distinguishing a structural trend from a passing fad (duration, deep causes, the investment behind it, the habits it changes) and conclude with a reasoned judgement on whether it is safe to open a padel club today.

A traditional meat company is debating whether to invest 3 million euros in converting a plant to manufacture plant-based meat alternative products. The commercial management asserts that plant-based food is an unstoppable structural trend, but the financial management warns that after the initial boom, industry sales have dropped by 10 % over the past year, pointing out that it might only be an overvalued passing fad.

1. a) Assess the situation by distinguishing between the factors that define a fad and those that characterise a structural trend (shift in socio-demographic values, sustainability regulatory framework, and price and investment barriers).
2. b) Based on your assessment, give reasoned advice to management on whether it should undertake the full conversion of the factory, opt for a phased entry strategy, or dismiss the project.