Exercises: Forecasting: key trends and macroeconomic variables

Explain the difference between a company's micro-environment (immediate actors: customers, suppliers, competitors) and macro-environment (general forces), giving two examples of each.

A PESTEL analysis classifies environmental factors into political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal. Classify these events: a VAT increase, an ageing population, a new waste management law, the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence, a rise in interest rates, and a government grant for entrepreneurship.

The figure shows the six categories of environmental factors that should be monitored before launching a business model. Identify the missing category, marked with '?', and give an example of how a factor from that category could affect an online shop.

Classify these facts under the corresponding letter of the PESTEL analysis: a rise in the minimum wage, the boom in delivery apps, climate awareness, a rule requiring recyclable packaging, the fall in the birth rate and a tax deduction for buying electric cars.

Explain what a country's GDP measures and what it tells a household appliance company about the demand it can expect if GDP grows or if the economy enters a recession.

Explain what inflation is and what happens to the margin of a bakery whose costs (flour, electricity) rise by 8% if it decides not to raise prices so as not to lose customers.

Explain what interest rates are and what effect a rate cut has for a company that was thinking of taking out a loan to expand its workshop.

Classify these elements as microenvironment or macroenvironment of a sports shop: a strike by its main supplier, a change of government, the opening of a competing shop on the same street and the shift in young people's habits towards outdoor sports.

The central bank raises interest rates from $1\ \%$ to $4\ \%$. Analyse how this macroeconomic variable affects an SME with a variable-rate loan of $100.000\ \text{€}$ and the sales of a furniture shop that finances its customers' purchases.

An ageing population is a clear social trend in Spain. Explain why this is a threat to a cot manufacturer and an opportunity for a home adaptation business, and what the former could do to pivot.

The CPI, the unemployment rate, and GDP are three basic macroeconomic variables. Explain what each measures and what they indicate to a food company regarding the right time to launch a premium product line.

A washable eco-friendly nappy brand wants to launch. Carry out a PESTEL analysis with one reasoned factor per letter and point out which of the six you think can boost its sales the most, justifying it.

With inflation of $4\ \%$ and an agreed pay rise of $2\ \%$ in the sector, analyse what happens to a clothing shop through two channels: its labour costs and the purchasing power of its customers. Explain why the final effect on its sales is ambiguous.

Interest rates rise sharply. Analyse how the rise affects three different businesses: an estate agency, a debt-free neighbourhood fruit shop and a tech start-up that is still losing money and needs financing. Explain why the same variable affects each one so differently.

The birth rate in Spain has been falling for years. Analyse what this demographic trend means for a chain of children's academies and propose two lines of reorientation that take advantage of opposing trends (adult education, courses for older people).

Paddle tennis has been growing in Spain for years. Apply the criteria for distinguishing a structural trend from a passing fad (duration, deep causes, the investment behind it, the habits it changes) and conclude with a reasoned judgement on whether it is safe to open a padel club today.

A sustainable clothing brand plans to launch its first online shop to sell across the European Union. Its business plan assumes that the rise in ecological awareness on its own guarantees the success of the project.

1. a) Contrast that optimism by analysing how two macro-environmental threats interact: an economic one (loss of purchasing power due to inflation that pushes consumers toward "fast fashion") and a technological/legal one (costs arising from European regulations on returns management and textile waste in e-commerce).
2. b) Justify, based on your PESTEL analysis, whether the global forces of the environment truly drive or hinder this launch, and propose a strategic measure to mitigate the main risk identified.

A traditional meat company is debating whether to invest 3 million euros in converting a plant to manufacture plant-based meat alternative products. The commercial management asserts that plant-based food is an unstoppable structural trend, but the financial management warns that after the initial boom, industry sales have dropped by 10 % over the past year, pointing out that it might only be an overvalued passing fad.

1. a) Assess the situation by distinguishing between the factors that define a fad and those that characterise a structural trend (shift in socio-demographic values, sustainability regulatory framework, and price and investment barriers).
2. b) Based on your assessment, give reasoned advice to management on whether it should undertake the full conversion of the factory, opt for a phased entry strategy, or dismiss the project.

A medium-sized gym chain invested heavily in an online training platform during a health crisis, but two years later platform usage has plummeted by 70% because customers prefer in-person, community-based classes.

1. a) Analyze the strategic mistake made when interpreting environmental signals (confusing a temporary disruption with a structural trend).
2. b) Design a strategic surveillance system to prevent future mistakes: define three key signals or indicators to monitor (one technological, one sociocultural, and one competitive), determine their frequency and information sources, and establish the criteria management should follow to validate whether a signal is solid before committing major investments.

«HogarDulce», a traditional manufacturer of solid wood furniture, is considering launching a line to buy back, refurbish, and resell its own used furniture. In its environmental analysis, four facts are identified:

1) Approval of European regulations on the «right to repair» and circular economy requirements.

2) Fall in household disposable income due to inflation, accompanied by a surge in purchases on peer-to-peer second-hand apps.

3) A 25% increase in logistics costs for transport and home pick-up.

4) Shortage and rising prices of imported virgin wood.

1. a) Classify each fact into its corresponding PESTEL dimension and determine whether it acts as a catalyst (driver) or as a barrier for the business model.
2. b) Determine which are the two factors with the greatest strategic weight and conclude with reasoning whether the overall macro-environment boosts or hinders the feasibility of the initiative.

A car dealership faces a combined scenario: high inflation, high interest rates and rising unemployment. Analyse the cross effect of the three variables on its sales (the price of cars, the cost of financing, the customer's fear of spending) and propose two commercial responses coherent with that scenario.

A Galician cannery exports 65% of its gourmet production to the US and the UK. It faces a scenario with a weakened euro against the dollar, a cumulative 12% increase in the costs of metal packaging and oil at origin, and a tightening of monetary policy (interest rate hikes) in its destination markets.

1. a) Interpret the cross-impact of these macroeconomic variables on its foreign competitiveness and on its unit profit margin.
2. b) Design a strategic surveillance dashboard for this SME by selecting three key indicators, setting a quantitative alert threshold for each (for example, a maximum percentage variation in the exchange rate or CPI), and justifying what specific commercial or financial decision the company should trigger if that threshold is exceeded.

A manufacturing company holds a €300 000 variable-rate loan indexed to Euribor + 1,5%. At the beginning of the year, Euribor was trading at 0,5%, but an aggressive rate hike by the European Central Bank places it at 4,0%. Its annual revenue is €600,000, with variable costs of €360 000 and operating fixed costs (excluding interest) of €180 000.

1. a) Calculate the annual increase in the financial burden and determine by what percentage the company's Earnings Before Taxes (EBT) decreases after the rate hike.
2. b) Management is hesitant between passing on the extra cost by raising product prices by 2% (in a market with a price elasticity of demand of -1,4) or renegotiating the loan to a long-term fixed rate of 4,5%. Evaluate the consequences of both alternatives and justify which one you would advise adopting.

The owner of a neighborhood pizzeria states: «The decisions of the European Central Bank and macroeconomic inflation figures only matter to large IBEX companies; they do not affect a local business like mine».

1. a) Refute their argument by explaining how a tightening of monetary policy (interest rate hikes to curb inflation) is transmitted to their business through three different channels: the cost of operational financing, local customer demand, and raw material supplier prices.
2. b) Faced with the generalized increase in the cost of supplies and labor, the owner considers raising all menu prices by 15%. Justify what risks are assumed by applying this measure in an environment of contracting consumption and what strategic alternative could be adopted to protect their margin without losing customers.