Scenarios: exploring several possible futures

Explain what a scenario is in business planning and what the purpose is of exploring several scenarios instead of working with a single 'official' plan.

Distinguish between a probable scenario (what seems likely to happen), possible (what could happen), and preferable (what we would like to happen), giving an example of each for the rural tourism sector.

Explain what a scenario is in planning and two characteristics it must have to be useful (plausible, internally coherent), and reason why a scenario is not a prediction.

To explore the future of a newsagent's kiosk, propose two key highly uncertain variables (for example, paper press reading habits and kiosk regulation) and justify why you would choose those and not others.

To construct scenarios, two or three key variables with high uncertainty are selected. Propose the two key variables you would use to explore the future of physical bookshops and justify why they carry the highest uncertainty and impact.

For the future of cinemas, choose two axes of uncertainty (audiovisual consumption habits at home, price and appeal of the going-out experience) and describe, giving each its own name, the four scenarios formed by crossing them.

A traditional driving school observes the arrival of autonomous vehicles. Construct two ten-year scenarios (one in which autonomous driving takes over rapidly and another in which it progresses slowly) and explain a robust decision it could make today that would serve it well in both cases.

A gardening company fears irrigation restrictions due to drought. Build two scenarios five years ahead (severe and frequent restrictions versus occasional restrictions) and propose a robust decision for today, such as specialising in low-water-consumption gardens, that serves it in both.

A bakery is undecided between two investments: expanding the workshop (it gains $80.000\ \text{€}$ if demand grows and loses $30.000\ \text{€}$ if it falls) or strengthening the online shop (it gains $30.000\ \text{€}$ if demand grows and loses $5.000\ \text{€}$ if it falls). a) Analyse each option in the two scenarios. b) Reason the difference between the optimal option in one scenario and the robust option in all of them, and recommend one according to the company's risk profile.

Weak signals are early hints of change that are not yet trends. Explain what they are, why they should be watched and which signals a taxi company should watch (shared mobility apps, rules on autonomous vehicles, young people's habits).

During a corporate strategy meeting, an executive states: «Designing alternative scenarios is a waste of time: a good manager's job is to accurately predict the future and bet on it». a) Refute this executive's statement by conceptually differentiating between prediction and scenario exploration in volatile and complex environments. b) Justify what strategic value the scenario planning technique brings to a company even if, in the end, none of the proposed scenarios materializes literally.

Following a severe international logistics crisis that disrupted major ports, the shipping company TransOcean reconfigured its routes in two weeks, while its main competitor took four months and suffered million-euro losses. The latter's management claimed: «It was a completely unpredictable event; no one could have anticipated it in their business plan». a) Refute the competing company's argument by differentiating between predicting a specific event and preparing for plausible uncertainty scenarios. b) Explain what strategic and operational advantages TransOcean gained through prior scenario planning, justifying why the value of this method lies in organizational learning rather than mere probabilistic accuracy.