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The dynamic Earth · The dynamics of the geosphere

Geological Hazards

On September 19, 2017, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake with its epicenter near Puebla shook Mexico City (CDMX). On September 19, 1985, a magnitude 8.0 earthquake with its epicenter off the coast of Michoacán caused thousands of deaths in the same city. Why can a distant earthquake be so damaging in the capital, and what can be done to make it less harmful?

Geological risk: hazard, vulnerability, and exposure

Geological processes are a normal part of an active planet. They become a problem when they affect people. By origin, they fall into two groups:

  • Internal hazards: they come from the Earth's internal energy, such as earthquakes (tremors), volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis of seismic origin.

  • External hazards: they come from the Sun's energy and from gravity, such as floods, landslides, subsidence, and erosion.

Geological risk as the product of hazard (an earthquake with waves and a seismogram) times vulnerability and exposure (a city with people and buildings, one of them reinforced), which results in risk (damaged buildings and rubble). Hazard × Vulnerability = Risk probability of the event fragility and exposed people probability of suffering damage

A geological risk map represents the zones of a territory according to their hazard (active faults, volcanoes, unstable slopes, flood-prone areas). It is used to decide where it is a good idea to build and where it is not. For example, a growing city can set aside unstable hillside areas as a park and locate schools and hospitals on firm ground.

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Distinguish between internal and external geological hazards, and give two examples of each type.

Distinguish between internal and external geological hazards, and give two examples of each type.

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What is a geological hazard map? Explain its purpose and give an example of how it can be used when planning the growth of a city.

What is a geological hazard map? Explain its purpose and give an example of how it can be used when planning the growth of a city.

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Seismic risk: magnitude and intensity

The point in the Earth's interior where the rock breaks is the hypocenter. The point on the surface directly above it is the epicenter. From there, seismic waves spread out, and a seismograph records them in a seismogram.

Plan-view diagram of an earthquake: around the epicenter, concentric circles indicate high intensity nearby, medium intensity at an intermediate distance, and low intensity far away, so that intensity decreases with distance. epicenter high intensity medium intensity low intensity Intensity decreases with distance from the epicenter
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Look at the diagram of an earthquake, which shows the hypocentre, epicentre, seismic waves and a seismograph recording. Using the diagram, explain the difference between…

Look at the diagram of an earthquake, which shows the hypocentre, epicentre, seismic waves and a seismograph recording. Using the diagram, explain the difference between the magnitude and intensity of an earthquake, and state which scale or instrument is used to measure each one.

Surface Seismic waves Hypocentre Epicentre Damage in the affected area Seismogram
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Two earthquakes of the same magnitude hit two different regions: in one there is barely any damage, while in the other thousands of casualties are reported. Explain what…

Two earthquakes of the same magnitude hit two different regions: in one there is barely any damage, while in the other thousands of casualties are reported. Explain what factors, besides magnitude, determine the effects of an earthquake: hazard, vulnerability and exposure.

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Following a series of tremors in a region crossed by an active geological fault, a local official declares: "During this month we have experienced $100$ small magnitude…

Following a series of tremors in a region crossed by an active geological fault, a local official declares: "During this month we have experienced $100$ small magnitude $3$ earthquakes. This is good news, because the fault has gradually released the energy equivalent to a major magnitude $6$ earthquake, thus avoiding a greater catastrophe."

  1. a) On the earthquake magnitude scale, each increase of $1$ unit of magnitude multiplies the energy released by approximately $31.6$ ($10^{1.5}$). Calculate how many magnitude $3$ earthquakes would actually be needed to equal the energy released by a single magnitude $6$ earthquake, and how many for a magnitude $7$ one.
  2. b) Using the numerical results obtained, refute the official's statements and justify why the presence of small, shallow earthquakes by no means guarantees that the risk of a major earthquake has dissipated.
  3. c) Explain what relationship exists between the accumulation of elastic strain energy along the boundaries of a locked fault (elastic rebound theory) and the destructive potential of a high-magnitude earthquake.
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Volcanic risk

Mexico has active volcanoes such as Popocatépetl and the Colima Volcano, and others that are inactive such as Pico de Orizaba. In 1943, Paricutín was born in a cornfield in Michoacán. CENAPRED (the National Center for Disaster Prevention) monitors Popocatépetl with an alert traffic-light system.

Comparison between an effusive Hawaiian-type volcano, wide with gentle slopes and fluid lava flows, and an explosive Vesuvian-type volcano, tall and steep, with a column of ash and gases, pyroclasts, and a pyroclastic flow; both with their magma chamber. gases escape easily lava flow pyroclasts pyroclastic flow column of ash and gases magma chamber effusive (fluid lava) explosive (ash and gases) Hawaiian type Vesuvian type

Besides what comes out of the crater, an eruption can generate lahars: flows of mud and debris that run down stream channels when ash mixes with rain or with the meltwater of a glacier.

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During a volcanic eruption, lava flows, ash, gases and pyroclastic flows are emitted, and lahars can form. Choose three of these products and explain the type of damage…

During a volcanic eruption, lava flows, ash, gases and pyroclastic flows are emitted, and lahars can form. Choose three of these products and explain the type of damage each one can cause.

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Putting events in order: relative dating

To know how dangerous a place is, you have to know its past: when was the last eruption? How many large earthquakes has this fault had? Rocks keep that record, and it is read with a few principles that order events from oldest to most recent, without needing to give dates in years. This is called relative dating.

Geological cross section with four horizontal layers of sediments, a magma dike that cuts through the three lower layers but not the top one, and an index fossil in layer 2. layer 1 (oldest) layer 2 with index fossil layer 3 layer 4 (youngest) dike: younger than 1-3 and older than layer 4
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On a slope above a road, two sections with the same gradient ($35^\circ$) are analyzed after a torrential rain event of $120\ \text{l/m}^2$: Section 1: alternating…

On a slope above a road, two sections with the same gradient ($35^\circ$) are analyzed after a torrential rain event of $120\ \text{l/m}^2$:

  • Section 1: alternating limestone and marl strata dipping at $30^\circ$ parallel to the terrain slope, recently deforested.

  • Section 2: horizontal strata of compact sandstone covered by native Mediterranean forest.

  1. a) Justify why Section 1 suffered a catastrophic landslide while Section 2 remained stable, analyzing the influence of dip, lithology, and plant cover.
  2. b) To stabilize Section 1, a company proposes spraying a continuous layer of shotcrete over the surface without drilling drainage weep holes into the interior. Predict what will happen during the next storm and technically justify why this measure may increase the risk.
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Prevention and risk management

Landscape with a volcano monitored by satellite and sensors, a risk zone left unbuilt next to earthquake-resistant buildings, and a group of people doing an evacuation drill toward a marked exit. Monitor Plan Educate satellite sensors risk zone earthquake-resistant drill evacuation

To build safely in a seismic zone, the following are used, for example:

  • Seismic isolators and dampers, which separate the building from the ground motion or absorb energy.

  • Flexible and reinforced structures (well-distributed steel, retaining walls, X-shaped bracing).

  • Foundations suited to the type of soil and construction on firm ground, avoiding, for example, the soft clays of the former Lake Texcoco.

  • Symmetrical buildings with floors of uniform strength, avoiding "soft stories."

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Describe three seismic risk prevention measures that can be applied in building construction in high-risk areas.

Describe three seismic risk prevention measures that can be applied in building construction in high-risk areas.

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Compare the data from these two real seismic events: • Earthquake A (Lorca, Spain, 2011): Magnitude $M_w = 5.1$; hypocenter depth = $1\ \text{km}$; epicentral distance…

Compare the data from these two real seismic events:

• Earthquake A (Lorca, Spain, 2011): Magnitude $M_w = 5.1$; hypocenter depth = $1\ \text{km}$; epicentral distance to urban center = $2.5\ \text{km}$; maximum intensity = VII-VIII (EMS); 9 deaths and hundreds of damaged buildings.

• Earthquake B (Sea of Okhotsk, 2013): Magnitude $M_w = 8.3$; hypocenter depth = $609\ \text{km}$; distance to nearest inhabited area = $350\ \text{km}$; maximum surface intensity = V (MMI); 0 deaths and no property damage.

  1. a) Based on the seismic risk equation ($\text{Risk} = \text{Hazard} \times \text{Exposure} \times \text{Vulnerability}$), analyze what specific factors caused the Lorca earthquake to be devastating despite its moderate magnitude.
  2. b) Explain the conceptual difference between the "magnitude" and the "intensity" of an earthquake using data from both earthquakes to illustrate your answer.
  3. c) Design two preventive measures (one structural and one related to land-use planning or education) to mitigate seismic risk in municipalities with characteristics similar to Lorca.
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Back to the beginning: the 1985 earthquake was so destructive in CDMX because, although the epicenter was far away, the soft ground amplified the waves (more intensity) and there were many fragile buildings and many people exposed. In 2017, with stricter codes and the seismic alert, there was less damage to new buildings, although vulnerability failed in old or poorly built ones.

Summary

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