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Economic reality: a macroeconomic perspective · Economic agents and aggregate measures

Aggregate demand and aggregate supply

After a hurricane shuts down refineries on the Gulf Coast, gas prices jump from Houston to Chicago and some businesses cut back on production. How can one event raise prices and hurt output at the same time? To find out, we need a model of the whole economy.

For a single good, price and quantity are set where supply and demand meet. For a whole country the same thing happens, only on a larger scale: the "price" is the general price level and the "quantity" is everything the country produces in a year.

Aggregate demand

Conceptual diagram with the four components of aggregate demand: consumption, investment, government spending and net exports. C consumption I investment G government spending X − M net exports + +

Like the demand curve of a single market, the aggregate demand curve slopes downwards: when the general price level falls, the total real GDP that agents are willing to buy rises. The reasons are different from those in a single market, as you will see below.

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Explain what an economy's aggregate demand is and name its four components, giving an example of each.

Explain what an economy's aggregate demand is and name its four components, giving an example of each.

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Aggregate demand has four components: household consumption, firms' investment, government spending and net exports (exports minus imports). Classify each case: a…

Aggregate demand has four components: household consumption, firms' investment, government spending and net exports (exports minus imports). Classify each case: a household buys a car, a firm buys robots, the government builds a health center and a country sells oranges abroad.

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An economy has these annual figures, in billions of dollars: consumption $600$, investment $150$, government spending $250$, exports $200$ and imports $220$. a)…

An economy has these annual figures, in billions of dollars: consumption $600$, investment $150$, government spending $250$, exports $200$ and imports $220$.

  1. a) Calculate the country's aggregate demand (and, with it, GDP) by adding the components.
  2. b) What sign does the trade balance have and what does it mean for the country's demand?
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Why the AD curve slopes downward

When the price of strawberries rises, you switch to blueberries, so the quantity of strawberries demanded falls. In the whole economy there is no "other good" to switch to: when the general price level rises, almost everything costs more, and incomes rise too. Assuming that what is true for one good must be true for the whole economy is the fallacy of composition. So the AD curve needs its own explanation.

Downward-sloping aggregate demand curve with price level on the vertical axis and real GDP on the horizontal axis; point A has a high price level and low real GDP demanded, point B a lower price level and higher real GDP demanded. real GDP (Y) price level (PL) AD A: high PL B: low PL
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Compare the supply and demand model of a single market (for example, strawberries) with the AD-AS model of a whole country: what does each axis measure in each case (the…

Compare the supply and demand model of a single market (for example, strawberries) with the AD-AS model of a whole country: what does each axis measure in each case (the price of one good versus the general price level, the quantity of one good versus GDP)?

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Explain the difference between a movement along the aggregate demand curve and a shift of the curve itself. Give an example of a cause for each case.

Explain the difference between a movement along the aggregate demand curve and a shift of the curve itself. Give an example of a cause for each case.

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A student argues: "The aggregate demand curve is downward-sloping for the same reason as the individual demand for a good: if prices rise, consumers substitute that good…

A student argues: "The aggregate demand curve is downward-sloping for the same reason as the individual demand for a good: if prices rise, consumers substitute that good for a cheaper one and buy less."

  1. a) Refute the student's statement by demonstrating why it commits a "fallacy of composition": why does the microeconomic substitution effect between goods not explain the downward slope of aggregate demand when the general price level ($P$) rises?
  2. b) Analytically justify the three real macroeconomic effects that explain why a rise in the general price level reduces total spending in an economy (the wealth effect, the interest rate effect, and the net exports effect).
  3. c) If the prices of all goods and the wages of all workers rose by exactly 10 % at the same time, would real output change in the long run? Reason your answer by distinguishing between nominal variables and real variables in the AD-AS model.
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Aggregate supply and macroeconomic equilibrium

AD-AS model graph showing macroeconomic equilibrium at the intersection of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, determining the general price level and aggregate output. real GDP (Y) price level (PL) AD AS E

Long-run aggregate supply

Give wages and input prices enough time and they adjust. Then output depends only on the economy's resources and technology, not on the price level. So the long-run aggregate supply (LRAS) curve is a vertical line at full-employment (potential) output, $Y_f$.

AD-AS graph with an upward-sloping short-run aggregate supply curve, a vertical long-run aggregate supply curve at full-employment output, and a downward-sloping aggregate demand curve crossing both at the same point. real GDP (Y) price level (PL) LRAS SRAS AD full-employment output Yf AD-AS graph showing a recessionary gap: AD and SRAS intersect to the left of the vertical LRAS at Yf, and SRAS shifts right to SRAS' in the long run. real GDP (Y) price level (PL) LRAS SRAS SRAS' AD E1 E2 Yf
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Explain what aggregate supply is and mention two factors that can increase it. How does it relate to firms' production costs?

Explain what aggregate supply is and mention two factors that can increase it. How does it relate to firms' production costs?

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The figure shows the aggregate demand and aggregate supply curves of an imaginary country. a) Read the equilibrium price level and output from the graph. b) Explain in…

The figure shows the aggregate demand and aggregate supply curves of an imaginary country.

output (GDP) price level AD AS E 100 500
  1. a) Read the equilibrium price level and output from the graph.
  2. b) Explain in your own words what this macroeconomic equilibrium point means.
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What does macroeconomic equilibrium mean? Explain what it means for an economy to be producing "below its potential": which resources are going to waste and how is that…

What does macroeconomic equilibrium mean? Explain what it means for an economy to be producing "below its potential": which resources are going to waste and how is that noticeable in real life?

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Shifts: demand shocks

Animation of the AD-AS model: the aggregate demand curve shifts to the right to AD' and the equilibrium point on the AS curve moves up and to the right, with projections onto the axes showing that the price level and output increase at the same time. AS AD AD'
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Households in a country, optimistic about the future, increase their consumption. a) Which curve shifts and in which direction? b) Explain what happens to the…

Households in a country, optimistic about the future, increase their consumption.

  1. a) Which curve shifts and in which direction?
  2. b) Explain what happens to the equilibrium output and price level.
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Spanish exports of tourism services break records two years in a row. a) Which component of aggregate demand increases and which way does the curve shift? b) Explain the…

Spanish exports of tourism services break records two years in a row.

  1. a) Which component of aggregate demand increases and which way does the curve shift?
  2. b) Explain the effect on the equilibrium output and price level.
  3. c) Explain what difference it makes if the economy has high unemployment or is already close to its maximum capacity.
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A coastal state experiences an intense tourism "boom": the arrival of foreign visitors doubles in one year, driving up spending on hospitality, transport, and leisure.…

A coastal state experiences an intense tourism "boom": the arrival of foreign visitors doubles in one year, driving up spending on hospitality, transport, and leisure. At the same time, hotels and restaurants expand their facilities and hire thousands of additional workers.

  1. a) Graph and explain using the AD-AS model the short-term impact on state GDP and the general price level. Accurately identify which specific components of aggregate demand have been affected.
  2. b) In the medium term, shortages of labor and housing push up required wages and commercial rents throughout the state. Predict how this cost reaction will affect state aggregate supply and the final macroeconomic equilibrium.
  3. c) Design a policy intervention for the state government to mitigate the risk of overheating and inflation without destroying the employment generated. Justify the pros and cons of your proposal.
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Shifts: supply shocks

Animation of the AD-AS model: the aggregate supply curve shifts to the left to AS' because of a negative supply shock and the equilibrium point, always on the AD curve, moves up and to the left: prices rise and output falls. AD AS AS'

Back to the start: the hurricane that shuts down Gulf Coast refineries raises costs for every firm that uses fuel. SRAS shifts left, so gas prices rise and output falls at the same time.

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Explain what aggregate supply is and why, in the short run, it is usually drawn with a positive slope: if the prices firms can charge rise faster than their costs, what…

Explain what aggregate supply is and why, in the short run, it is usually drawn with a positive slope: if the prices firms can charge rise faster than their costs, what incentive do they have to produce?

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Classify these events as demand shocks or supply shocks: a wave of optimism that sends business investment soaring, an earthquake that destroys factories, an increase in…

Classify these events as demand shocks or supply shocks: a wave of optimism that sends business investment soaring, an earthquake that destroys factories, an increase in public spending on roads and a worldwide rise in the price of gas.

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The price of oil doubles, driving up transport and manufacturing costs across the country. a) Which curve is affected and why? b) Analyze the new equilibrium: what…

The price of oil doubles, driving up transport and manufacturing costs across the country.

  1. a) Which curve is affected and why?
  2. b) Analyze the new equilibrium: what happens to output and prices, and what problem does this combination of effects pose?
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Policy and the AD-AS model

Governments try to steer AD. In fiscal policy, Congress and the President change government spending or taxes. In monetary policy, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) changes interest rates.

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The federal government announces a major public works plan in the same year that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to curb inflation. a) Analyze the effect of…

The federal government announces a major public works plan in the same year that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to curb inflation.

  1. a) Analyze the effect of each measure separately on aggregate demand.
  2. b) Explain why the combined effect is ambiguous: what does the final result depend on (the size of each measure, how sensitive investment is to interest rates)?
  3. c) What indicators would you watch during the year to know which effect is dominating?
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Two countries apply the same demand stimulus. The first has $15\ \%$ unemployment and factories running at half capacity; the second is close to full employment. a)…

Two countries apply the same demand stimulus. The first has $15\ \%$ unemployment and factories running at half capacity; the second is close to full employment.

  1. a) Predict the effect on each country's output and justify it with the AD-AS model.
  2. b) What will happen to prices in each one? What shape does the aggregate supply curve have near full employment and what does that imply?
  3. c) Draw the lesson for the design of stimulus measures: when do they work and when do they only heat up prices?
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An economy experiences a recession in the first quarter of the year due to a collapse in exports. Official national accounting statistics take five months to confirm the…

An economy experiences a recession in the first quarter of the year due to a collapse in exports. Official national accounting statistics take five months to confirm the drop in GDP, and Congress takes another four months to approve an extraordinary public works plan. The works begin execution twelve months after the crisis, just when the economy has already begun to recover on its own.

  1. a) Use the AD-AS model to illustrate the situation: show the equilibrium during the recession and predict what will happen to output and inflation if the massive fiscal stimulus takes effect when the economy was already operating close to its potential level.
  2. b) Identify and classify in this case study the different types of time lags (recognition, decision, execution, and impact) that have affected fiscal policy.
  3. c) In light of this problem, design two fiscal policy mechanisms (automatic stabilizers) that act immediately without the need for Congress to pass a law in each crisis. Explain how they cushion fluctuations in aggregate demand.
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Summary

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