Theoretical Probability
Your senior class sells 100 raffle tickets numbered 1 to 100 for the class trip, at $\$1$ each. One number is pulled from a hat. What are your chances if you hold one ticket? What if you hold five? When every ticket has the same shot, answering is just counting: how many outcomes help you, out of how many there are in total. That is theoretical probability. The formula is easy. In AP Statistics the real work is counting well when there are thousands of outcomes.
When is "random" also "equally likely"?
A spinner divided into $12$ equal sectors, numbered from $1$ to $12$, is used. Calculate the probability that when spinning the spinner, the arrow stops on: a) A number…
A spinner divided into $12$ equal sectors, numbered from $1$ to $12$, is used. Calculate the probability that when spinning the spinner, the arrow stops on:
- a) A number divisible by $3$.
- b) A number that is a perfect square (such as $1, 4, 9$).
- c) A number greater than $2$ and less than $7$.
We toss two fair coins simultaneously. a) Write down the sample space of the experiment. b) What is the probability of obtaining exactly one head? c) What is the…
We toss two fair coins simultaneously.
- a) Write down the sample space of the experiment.
- b) What is the probability of obtaining exactly one head?
- c) What is the probability of obtaining at least one tail?
Favorable over possible
Some problems call this Laplace's Rule. It is exactly the theoretical probability you know from earlier courses.
About the 40-card deck
A few problems use a deck of $40$ cards instead of the standard $52$. It works just like the standard deck, only with a different set of cards: there are $4$ suits of $10$ cards each, and no 8s, 9s, or 10s.
| Feature | 40-card deck |
|---|---|
| Suits (4), as named in the problems | cups, coins, swords, clubs |
| Cards in each suit (10) | ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, jack, knight, king |
| Total | $4 \times 10 = 40$ cards |
In a standard deck, $P(\text{heart}) = \dfrac{13}{52} = \dfrac14$. In the 40-card deck, $P(\text{cup}) = \dfrac{10}{40} = \dfrac14$. The method is the same.
In a role-playing game, a player rolls an eight-sided die (octahedron) numbered from $1$ to $8$. If the die is perfectly fair, calculate the following probabilities…
In a role-playing game, a player rolls an eight-sided die (octahedron) numbered from $1$ to $8$. If the die is perfectly fair, calculate the following probabilities using Laplace's rule:
- a) Obtaining an even number.
- b) Obtaining a number greater than $5$.
- c) Obtaining a prime number.
A card is drawn at random from a Spanish deck of $40$ cards. Determine the probability of the following events: a) The card is an ace. b) It is a cup. c) It is the king…
A card is drawn at random from a Spanish deck of $40$ cards. Determine the probability of the following events:
- a) The card is an ace.
- b) It is a cup.
- c) It is the king of coins.
If we choose a letter at random from the word ESTADISTICA, determine the probability of the following events: a) The letter is a vowel. b) The letter is S. c) The letter…
If we choose a letter at random from the word ESTADISTICA, determine the probability of the following events:
- a) The letter is a vowel.
- b) The letter is S.
- c) The letter is a consonant.
"Not" and "or": complements and overlaps
Often it is easier to count what you do not want, or to combine two events.
In a drawer there are $10$ black socks, $6$ blue socks and $4$ white socks, all of them loose. If we choose one at random to go to class, calculate: a) The probability…
In a drawer there are $10$ black socks, $6$ blue socks and $4$ white socks, all of them loose. If we choose one at random to go to class, calculate:
- a) The probability that it is blue.
- b) The probability that it is not white.
- c) The probability that it is black or white.
A group of high school seniors organize a raffle for their end-of-year trip. They have sold tickets numbered from $1$ to $100$. If the draw is made by extracting a…
A group of high school seniors organize a raffle for their end-of-year trip. They have sold tickets numbered from $1$ to $100$. If the draw is made by extracting a number at random, find the probability that the winning number:
- a) Is a multiple of $10$.
- b) Ends in the digit $7$.
- c) Is a number less than $15$.
In a lottery drum there are $10$ balls numbered from $0$ to $9$. Two balls are drawn successively with replacement (the first is returned before drawing the second).…
In a lottery drum there are $10$ balls numbered from $0$ to $9$. Two balls are drawn successively with replacement (the first is returned before drawing the second). Calculate the probability that the number formed by both digits (considering the first as tens and the second as units) is a multiple of $4$ or a number greater than $75$.
Venn diagrams and two-way tables
When a problem gives you overlapping groups, organize the counts in a Venn diagram or a table. Then every probability is just a count divided by the total.
With three overlapping groups, fill the Venn diagram from the center outward.
A two-way table organizes the same idea with rows and columns.
| Takes the bus | Doesn't | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Junior | 12 | 18 | 30 |
| Senior | 15 | 5 | 20 |
| Total | 27 | 23 | 50 |
From the table: $P(\text{senior}) = \tfrac{20}{50}$, $P(\text{junior who takes the bus}) = \tfrac{12}{50}$, and $P(\text{doesn't take the bus}) = \tfrac{23}{50}$. The denominator is always the grand total, $50$.
In a class there are $30$ students, of which $18$ are girls and $12$ are boys. It is known that $10$ girls and $8$ boys like the math podcast "Derivando". If a student…
In a class there are $30$ students, of which $18$ are girls and $12$ are boys. It is known that $10$ girls and $8$ boys like the math podcast "Derivando". If a student is chosen at random, calculate the probability that:
- a) They are a boy.
- b) They are a girl who likes the podcast.
- c) They are a person who does not like the podcast.
A survey has been carried out in a high school on the use of social networks. Of the $100$ seniors, it is known that $65$ use TikTok, $40$ use Instagram and $15$ use…
A survey has been carried out in a high school on the use of social networks. Of the $100$ seniors, it is known that $65$ use TikTok, $40$ use Instagram and $15$ use neither of the two applications. If we select a student at random, calculate the probability that:
-
a) They use both social networks.
-
b) They use TikTok but not Instagram.
A study is carried out on the streaming content consumption habits of young people in a city. It is known that: $65\%$ have a subscription to platform N. $50\%$ have a…
A study is carried out on the streaming content consumption habits of young people in a city. It is known that:
-
$65\%$ have a subscription to platform N.
-
$50\%$ have a subscription to platform D.
-
$45\%$ have a subscription to platform H.
-
$30\%$ are subscribed to N and D.
-
$25\%$ are subscribed to N and H.
-
$20\%$ are subscribed to D and H.
-
$10\%$ are subscribed to all three platforms.
If a young person is chosen at random, calculate the probability that they are subscribed to only one of the three platforms.
Choosing the right sample space
For two dice, you could list the sums $2$ through $12$, but those $11$ sums are not equally likely. The outcomes that are equally likely are the ordered pairs (die 1, die 2): $6 \times 6 = 36$ of them.
| + | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
The same idea holds when you draw with replacement. Drawing two digits from a drum of balls numbered $0$ to $9$, returning the first before the second, gives $10 \times 10 = 100$ equally likely ordered pairs.
At a board game festival, two fair cubical dice (with faces from 1 to 6) are used. A player rolls both dice at the same time. Calculate the probability that the sum of…
At a board game festival, two fair cubical dice (with faces from 1 to 6) are used. A player rolls both dice at the same time. Calculate the probability that the sum of the scores obtained is a prime number greater than $5$.
Counting groups: combinations
When the sample space has thousands of outcomes, count with combinations instead of listing. If you draw a group of $k$ items from $n$ and the order does not matter, the number of groups is
$$\binom{n}{k} = {}_nC_k = \frac{n!}{k!\,(n-k)!}.$$Two cards are drawn simultaneously from a Spanish deck of $40$ cards (which is equivalent to drawing one after the other without replacement). Calculate the probability…
Two cards are drawn simultaneously from a Spanish deck of $40$ cards (which is equivalent to drawing one after the other without replacement). Calculate the probability that:
-
a) Both cards are of the same suit.
-
b) At least one of the cards is an Ace.
In a glass urn for an electronics store prize draw, there are $12$ white balls and $8$ black balls. Three balls are drawn at random, one by one and without replacement.…
In a glass urn for an electronics store prize draw, there are $12$ white balls and $8$ black balls. Three balls are drawn at random, one by one and without replacement. Applying Laplace's rule to the sample space of equiprobable elementary events, determine the probability that the three balls drawn are of the same color.
In an electronic sports (eSports) club, a team of 5 players is going to be selected for a national tournament. 15 candidates have applied for the selection process: 8…
In an electronic sports (eSports) club, a team of 5 players is going to be selected for a national tournament. 15 candidates have applied for the selection process: 8 strategy specialists and 7 reflexes specialists. The tournament rules require the team to have at least 3 strategy specialists and a minimum of 1 reflexes specialist. If the board chooses the 5 members at random from all the candidates, calculate the probability that the team strictly complies with the rules.
Counting arrangements: permutations
When the order matters, as in a photo lineup, a seating chart, or a word, count arrangements. $n$ different items can be arranged in $n!$ ways.
Around a round table, rotating everyone one seat gives the same arrangement. A trick: fix one person's seat, then arrange the other $n - 1$ people in $(n-1)!$ ways.
A group of $5$ friends (Ashley, Brandon, Chloe, David, and Emma) are going to pose in a row for a graduation photo. If they are positioned at random, calculate the…
A group of $5$ friends (Ashley, Brandon, Chloe, David, and Emma) are going to pose in a row for a graduation photo. If they are positioned at random, calculate the probability that Ashley and Emma appear together in the photo.
At a senior graduation dinner, 8 friends sit at a circular table. Among them are a couple, Ashley and Brandon, who have argued and do not want to sit together, and two…
At a senior graduation dinner, 8 friends sit at a circular table. Among them are a couple, Ashley and Brandon, who have argued and do not want to sit together, and two other friends, Chloe and David, who are inseparable and must sit next to each other. If the seats are assigned completely at random, calculate the probability that the wishes of all four friends are fulfilled simultaneously.
Using the letters of the word $ALGORITMO$ (all of them distinct), all possible permutations are formed. If one of these arrangements is chosen at random, calculate the…
Using the letters of the word $ALGORITMO$ (all of them distinct), all possible permutations are formed. If one of these arrangements is chosen at random, calculate the probability that the resulting word begins and ends with a vowel, and that all the vowels also appear together somewhere in the string.
Counting codes and passwords
A PIN or password is an ordered list, and a random generator can repeat characters. So the sample space counts every string, repeats included. The favorable count includes only the strings that meet the conditions.
To log into an online banking application, a random $4$-digit PIN code (from $0$ to $9$) is generated. Calculate the probability that the assigned code meets the…
To log into an online banking application, a random $4$-digit PIN code (from $0$ to $9$) is generated. Calculate the probability that the assigned code meets the following conditions:
-
a) All its digits are distinct.
-
b) It is a palindromic number (it reads the same from left to right as from right to left).
A computer security system requires a 6-character password. The user must choose these characters from the set formed by the 26 lowercase letters of the alphabet and the…
A computer security system requires a 6-character password. The user must choose these characters from the set formed by the 26 lowercase letters of the alphabet and the digits from 0 to 9. If the system automatically generates a password at random, what is the probability that it contains exactly 2 digits, 4 letters and that, furthermore, no character is repeated?
Counting by cases
Some conditions, like "the sum is $10$" or "the product is a perfect square," are checked value by value. List the patterns that work, count the outcomes for each pattern, and add.
We roll three fair six-sided dice (numbered from 1 to 6) and record the results as $(d_1, d_2, d_3)$. Calculate the probability that the product of the three numbers…
We roll three fair six-sided dice (numbered from 1 to 6) and record the results as $(d_1, d_2, d_3)$. Calculate the probability that the product of the three numbers obtained is a perfect square (for example: $1 \cdot 2 \cdot 2 = 4 = 2^2$).
3 cards are drawn simultaneously from a 40-card Spanish deck. Calculate the probability that the sum of the values of the three cards is exactly 10. (For this exercise,…
3 cards are drawn simultaneously from a 40-card Spanish deck. Calculate the probability that the sum of the values of the three cards is exactly 10. (For this exercise, consider that the face cards: jack, knight and king, have values of 8, 9 and 10 respectively, and the ace is worth 1).
Geometric probability: when outcomes are continuous
You can't count the points on a target. But if a random point is equally likely to land anywhere in a region, measure instead of counting.
It works with lengths too. A bus comes every $15$ minutes and you arrive at a random time. The wait is equally likely to be anywhere from $0$ to $15$ minutes, so $P(\text{wait} < 5 \text{ min}) = \tfrac{5}{15} = \tfrac13$.
A target-shooting video game consists of throwing a virtual dart at a square target of side $20\text{ cm}$ which has an inscribed orange circle. The program guarantees…
A target-shooting video game consists of throwing a virtual dart at a square target of side $20\text{ cm}$ which has an inscribed orange circle. The program guarantees that the dart always hits a point on the square randomly (equiprobably). Calculate the probability that the dart hits outside the orange circle. (Consider $\pi \approx 3,14$).
A graphic design app generates a random pattern by placing a point $P$ inside a circle of radius $R = 10 \text{ cm}$. Inscribed in the center of the circle is a square…
A graphic design app generates a random pattern by placing a point $P$ inside a circle of radius $R = 10 \text{ cm}$. Inscribed in the center of the circle is a square of side $L = 8 \text{ cm}$. The app's algorithm considers it a "visual hit" if the point $P$ falls inside the square or in the region of the circle that lies above the horizontal diameter but outside the square. Using the concept of geometric probability (an extension of Laplace's Rule for areas), calculate the probability of obtaining a "visual hit" in one attempt.
Back to the beginning: with $100$ tickets and one winner, $P(\text{you win with one ticket}) = \tfrac{1}{100} = 1\%$. With $5$ different tickets, $5$ outcomes are favorable, so $P = \tfrac{5}{100} = 5\%$.