The causes of climate change
The greenhouse effect has existed for millions of years and is essential for life: without it, the Earth would be a frozen planet. The problem is not that it exists, but that we are strengthening it more than the planet can cope with.
The natural greenhouse effect
If you get into a car parked in the sun with the windows closed on a cool day in Denver, you notice that the inside is much warmer than the outside, because the glass lets light in but traps heat. Which components of the air do the same job on a planetary scale to stop the Earth from being a ball of ice?
Weather versus climate
Weather is what the atmosphere does at a place over hours or days: a 95 °F afternoon in Houston, a tornado warning in Oklahoma. Climate is the pattern of weather averaged over at least 30 years: Houston's climate is hot and humid. One cold winter does not disprove warming, just as one free throw does not tell you a player's shooting percentage.
Gases and the greenhouse effect
Two important greenhouse gases are $\text{CO}_2$ and $\text{CH}_4$. Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas, and it acts as a feedback: warmer air holds more water vapor, which traps more heat (a positive feedback). The effect is called "greenhouse" because, like the glass of a garden greenhouse, the atmosphere lets sunlight in and slows the escape of heat. The greenhouse effect is natural, not a human creation; only the extra part comes from us.
The diagram represents the greenhouse effect in four numbered steps. a) Explain what happens in each of the steps labeled with the numbers 1 to 4. b) Which number…
The diagram represents the greenhouse effect in four numbered steps.
- a) Explain what happens in each of the steps labeled with the numbers 1 to 4.
- b) Which number corresponds to the heat returned by the atmosphere toward the surface?
- c) Name two greenhouse gases.
Explain the difference between weather and climate, and give an example of each.
Explain the difference between weather and climate, and give an example of each.
Explain in your own words what the greenhouse effect is and why it is called that.
Explain in your own words what the greenhouse effect is and why it is called that.
State whether these statements are true or false and correct the false ones: the greenhouse effect is a phenomenon created by humans; burning gasoline emits…
State whether these statements are true or false and correct the false ones: the greenhouse effect is a phenomenon created by humans; burning gasoline emits $\text{CO}_2$; solar energy emits more greenhouse gases than coal.
The greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon necessary for life. Explain why this is so and clarify the current problem (the enhanced greenhouse effect due to human…
The greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon necessary for life. Explain why this is so and clarify the current problem (the enhanced greenhouse effect due to human emissions).
The human activities that strengthen it
Comparing emissions: per person and per distance
To compare activities, convert to emissions per person and per distance. A rule of thumb: one person alone in a gasoline car emits more $\text{CO}_2$ per kilometer than the same person on a full bus, and walking or biking emits essentially none. Rank by emissions per person per kilometer.
Electricity, livestock and food
Electricity from coal and natural gas emits $\text{CO}_2$; wind, solar, hydro and nuclear do not emit $\text{CO}_2$ while producing power. That is why switching the power grid to renewables (like wind in Texas) is a key way to cut emissions. Cattle release methane when they digest; eating less beef or improving feed reduces it. Food flown across continents burns jet fuel, so buying seasonal food at a local farmers market lowers the emissions from transport.
Order these ways of getting to school from lowest to highest emissions: one person traveling by car, walking, traveling by bus. Explain the criterion you have followed.
Order these ways of getting to school from lowest to highest emissions: one person traveling by car, walking, traveling by bus. Explain the criterion you have followed.
Explain the relationship between burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) and the increase of $\text{CO}2$ in the atmosphere.
Explain the relationship between burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) and the increase of $\text{CO}_2$ in the atmosphere.
Name two energy sources that do not emit $\text{CO}2$ when producing electricity and two that do.
Name two energy sources that do not emit $\text{CO}_2$ when producing electricity and two that do.
How is deforestation linked to climate change? Explain two different mechanisms: the reduced absorption of $\text{CO}2$ and the emissions caused by cutting down or…
How is deforestation linked to climate change? Explain two different mechanisms: the reduced absorption of $\text{CO}_2$ and the emissions caused by cutting down or burning forests.
The concentration of atmospheric $\text{CO}2$ was 317 ppm in 1960, 354 ppm in 1990, and 414 ppm in 2020. Calculate the increase between 1960 and 2020, express it as a…
The concentration of atmospheric $\text{CO}_2$ was 317 ppm in 1960, 354 ppm in 1990, and 414 ppm in 2020. Calculate the increase between 1960 and 2020, express it as a percentage, and relate the trend to human activities.
Cattle emit methane during digestion. Explain how livestock farming contributes to climate change and cite one measure that would reduce this impact.
Cattle emit methane during digestion. Explain how livestock farming contributes to climate change and cite one measure that would reduce this impact.
A car emits about 120 g of $\text{CO}2$ per kilometer. Calculate the emissions of a daily 30 km trip and those of a whole year (250 days), and propose two alternatives…
A car emits about 120 g of $\text{CO}_2$ per kilometer. Calculate the emissions of a daily 30 km trip and those of a whole year (250 days), and propose two alternatives to reduce them.
Coal-fired power plants emit much more $\text{CO}2$ per kilowatt-hour than renewable ones. Explain why the transition to renewable energy is considered key in the fight…
Coal-fired power plants emit much more $\text{CO}_2$ per kilowatt-hour than renewable ones. Explain why the transition to renewable energy is considered key in the fight against climate change.
Flying fruit in from another continent emits much more $\text{CO}2$ than buying it in season at the local farmers market. Explain the relationship between these…
Flying fruit in from another continent emits much more $\text{CO}_2$ than buying it in season at the local farmers market. Explain the relationship between these emissions and climate change and explain why local, seasonal consumption is recommended.
Processes that amplify warming
In the middle of summer, a white T-shirt reflects sunlight and feels cool, whereas a black T-shirt absorbs the radiation and is hot to the touch. What happens at the North Pole when the reflective white ice melts and exposes the dark sea water?
Permafrost, the permanently frozen soil of the Arctic, stores enormous amounts of carbon. Explain what can happen if it thaws and why scientists consider it a process…
Permafrost, the permanently frozen soil of the Arctic, stores enormous amounts of carbon. Explain what can happen if it thaws and why scientists consider it a process that feeds back into warming.
A climate model warns that a 1 °C increase in Arctic water temperature can trigger a positive feedback loop. Design a cause-and-effect flow chart that links in an…
A climate model warns that a 1 °C increase in Arctic water temperature can trigger a positive feedback loop. Design a cause-and-effect flow chart that links in an orderly manner: increase in atmospheric temperature, melting of sea ice, variation in surface albedo, and absorption of solar radiation by the ocean. Based on your diagram, predict what would happen to the planet's thermal self-regulation capacity if the Arctic Ocean became completely ice-free during the summer.
Rates, evidence and responsibility
Is today's warming just another natural swing? To answer, scientists use evidence such as ice cores and tree rings, and they compare rates of change, not only totals.
Rate of change
A rate is change divided by time. If an anomaly goes from $a_1$ to $a_2$ over $n$ decades, the rate is $(a_2 - a_1)/n$ per decade. To project, add rate $\times$ decades to the last value.
Past climates and the speed of change
Earth has been much warmer before, such as in the Cretaceous, but those changes took millions or thousands of years. Today's change is happening in about a century or two, so ecosystems and species have little time to migrate or adapt. That is why "it was natural before" does not make today's warming natural.
How do we know past climates? Ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica trap tiny bubbles of ancient air, so scientists can measure past $\text{CO}_2$ levels and temperatures going back hundreds of thousands of years. Tree rings are thicker in warm, wet years and thinner in dry or cold ones, which records climate over centuries.
Policy responses
The EPA regulates emissions under the Clean Air Act. Some policymakers also propose a carbon tax, which puts a price on each ton of $\text{CO}_2$ emitted so that cleaner energy becomes cheaper by comparison.
Short-lived and long-lived gases, and volcanoes
Methane warms far more per molecule but leaves the air in about a dozen years, so cutting it slows warming quickly. $\text{CO}_2$ stays for centuries, so cutting it is essential to stop long-term warming. Both are needed. A big volcanic eruption like Mount Pinatubo in 1991 injects $\text{SO}_2$, which forms sulfate aerosols that reflect sunlight and cool the planet for a year or two; it is not a source of lasting warming.
Fair shares
Total emissions = per capita emissions $\times$ population. Countries differ in per capita emissions and in historical emissions. Fair agreements consider both, under the idea of common but differentiated responsibilities. City planners also compare options by gas avoided, speed, and size of the cut: for example, capturing landfill methane acts fast, while electrifying buses and solar panels cut $\text{CO}_2$ over decades.
Analyse the following global temperature anomaly data: −0.2 °C in 1880, +0.2 °C in 1980, and +1.2 °C in 2023. Calculate the average warming rate per decade in the period…
Analyse the following global temperature anomaly data: −0.2 °C in 1880, +0.2 °C in 1980, and +1.2 °C in 2023. Calculate the average warming rate per decade in the period 1880-1980 compared to the period 1980-2023. Based on the result, justify whether global warming follows a constant or an accelerated progression, and predict what temperature anomaly we would reach in 2050 if the rate of the last period were maintained compared to if the rate of the first had been maintained.
An advisory team proposes two strategies to curb global warming before 2040: Plan A aims to eliminate natural gas leaks and reduce intensive livestock herds (focusing on…
An advisory team proposes two strategies to curb global warming before 2040: Plan A aims to eliminate natural gas leaks and reduce intensive livestock herds (focusing on methane, $\text{CH}_4$); Plan B focuses on decommissioning coal-fired power plants (focusing on $\text{CO}_2$). Knowing that $\text{CH}_4$ warms about 80 times more than $\text{CO}_2$ over a 20-year timescale but disappears from the atmosphere in about 12 years, while $\text{CO}_2$ remains for centuries, evaluate which of the two plans would slow down warming faster in the short term and which one is essential to prevent irreversible change in the long term. Justify your verdict.
In a school debate, someone argues: «In the Cretaceous there was no ice at the poles and the Earth was much warmer than today without human intervention; therefore, the…
In a school debate, someone argues: «In the Cretaceous there was no ice at the poles and the Earth was much warmer than today without human intervention; therefore, the current warming is natural and we should not worry». Refute this statement by comparing the timescale (rate) at which those geological changes occurred versus that of the current change, and explain what direct consequence this difference in speed has on the adaptive capacity of ecosystems and species survival.
Country A emits 15 t of $\text{CO}2$ per year per capita and has 10 million inhabitants. Country D emits 1.5 t per year per capita and has 200 million inhabitants. An…
Country A emits 15 t of $\text{CO}_2$ per year per capita and has 10 million inhabitants. Country D emits 1.5 t per year per capita and has 200 million inhabitants. An international treaty requires both to reduce their total emissions by 20 % in five years. Calculate the total emissions of each country, compare the real impact that this cut would demand on the lifestyle of an average citizen of A versus one of D, and justify why negotiating reductions based solely on the national total is unfair.
Following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, the global average temperature dropped by about 0.5 °C for almost two years, even though the volcano ejected millions…
Following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, the global average temperature dropped by about 0.5 °C for almost two years, even though the volcano ejected millions of metric tons of $\text{CO}_2$. Investigate the role of sulfur dioxide ($\text{SO}_2$) aerosols and emitted ash to explain the physical mechanism that caused this temporary cooling, and use this fact to refute those who mistakenly claim that volcanic eruptions are the cause of sustained global warming in recent decades.
The city council of a municipality with an industrial park, large numbers of tourists, and a regional landfill wants to cut its carbon footprint, but its budget only…
The city council of a municipality with an industrial park, large numbers of tourists, and a regional landfill wants to cut its carbon footprint, but its budget only allows funding two of these three options: 1) electrifying city buses and municipal machinery; 2) capturing biogas from the landfill and using it to generate energy, to avoid $\text{CH}_4$ emissions; 3) installing solar panels on the roofs of industrial warehouses to reduce electricity use from the fossil-fuel grid. Analyze the differential impact of each option (gas avoided, immediacy, and magnitude) and justify which two you would prioritize.
At a climate summit, Country X (a wealthy nation, highly industrialized since the 19th century, currently with low annual emissions) demands that Country Y (a developing…
At a climate summit, Country X (a wealthy nation, highly industrialized since the 19th century, currently with low annual emissions) demands that Country Y (a developing country, currently the world's largest emitter in absolute terms, but with low per capita emissions) reduce its emissions at the same rate. Acting as a UN mediator, formulate an agreement proposal based on the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities", taking into account historical cumulative emissions versus current emissions, and justify why your proposal is equitable for both parties.