Exercises: Forecasting: key trends and macroeconomic variables

Explain the difference between a company's micro-environment (immediate actors: customers, suppliers, competitors) and macro-environment (general forces), giving two examples of each.

A PESTEL analysis classifies environmental factors into political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal. Classify these events: a VAT increase, an aging population, a new waste management law, the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence, a rise in interest rates, and a government grant for entrepreneurship.

The figure shows the six categories of environmental factors that should be monitored before launching a business model. Identify the missing category, marked with '?', and give an example of how a factor from that category could affect an online shop.

The central bank raises interest rates from $1\ \%$ to $4\ \%$. Analyse how this macroeconomic variable affects an SME with a variable-rate loan of $\$2\,000\,000$ and the sales of a furniture shop that finances its customers' purchases.

An aging population is a clear social trend in Mexico. Explain why this is a threat to a crib manufacturer and an opportunity for a home adaptation business, and what the former could do to pivot.

The CPI, the unemployment rate, and GDP are three basic macroeconomic variables. Explain what each measures and what they indicate to a food company regarding the right time to launch a premium product line.

A sustainable clothing brand plans to launch its first online shop to sell across the European Union. Its business plan assumes that the rise in ecological awareness on its own guarantees the success of the project.

1. a) Contrast that optimism by analysing how two macro-environmental threats interact: an economic one (loss of purchasing power due to inflation that pushes consumers toward "fast fashion") and a technological/legal one (costs arising from European regulations on returns management and textile waste in e-commerce).
2. b) Justify, based on your PESTEL analysis, whether the global forces of the environment truly drive or hinder this launch, and propose a strategic measure to mitigate the main risk identified.

A traditional meat company is debating whether to invest 3 million pesos in converting a plant to manufacture plant-based meat alternative products. The commercial management asserts that plant-based food is an unstoppable structural trend, but the financial management warns that after the initial boom, industry sales have dropped by 10 % over the past year, pointing out that it might only be an overvalued passing fad.

1. a) Assess the situation by distinguishing between the factors that define a fad and those that characterise a structural trend (shift in socio-demographic values, sustainability regulatory framework, and price and investment barriers).
2. b) Based on your assessment, give reasoned advice to management on whether it should undertake the full conversion of the factory, opt for a phased entry strategy, or dismiss the project.

A medium-sized gym chain invested heavily in an online training platform during a health crisis, but two years later platform usage has plummeted by 70% because customers prefer in-person, community-based classes.

1. a) Analyze the strategic mistake made when interpreting environmental signals (confusing a temporary disruption with a structural trend).
2. b) Design a strategic surveillance system to prevent future mistakes: define three key signals or indicators to monitor (one technological, one sociocultural, and one competitive), determine their frequency and information sources, and establish the criteria management should follow to validate whether a signal is solid before committing major investments.