Basic Probability
Marcus has a playlist of $20$ songs on shuffle, and $5$ of them are by his favorite artist. What is the chance the next song is one of hers? The weather app says "40% chance of rain," and a casino sets the odds on a roulette wheel. All of these start the same way: describe the experiment exactly, then count the outcomes carefully. In this section you build that toolkit. It also leads into the geometry of area, which gives us "geometric probability."
Sample Space and Events
Write the sample space associated with the random experiment consisting of extracting a ball from an urn containing $5$ balls numbered from $1$ to $5$.
Write the sample space associated with the random experiment consisting of extracting a ball from an urn containing $5$ balls numbered from $1$ to $5$.
Types of Events and Set Notation
Events are sets, so we can combine them with set notation.
| Symbol | Meaning |
|---|---|
| $A \cup B$ | union: $A$ or $B$ (or both) happens |
| $A \cap B$ | intersection: $A$ and $B$ both happen |
| $\overline{A}$ (also written $A^c$) | complement: $A$ does not happen |
Two special events matter. A certain event is the whole sample space ($A = E$), and $P(A) = 1$. An impossible event is the empty set ($A = \emptyset$), and $P(A) = 0$.
Two events are mutually exclusive if they have no outcome in common: $A \cap B = \emptyset$. They can never happen at the same time. (Some problems call mutually exclusive events incompatible and overlapping ones compatible.)
In the experiment of rolling a $6$-sided die, classify the following events into elementary, compound, certain or impossible: $A = $ "rolling a $4$" $B = $ "rolling a…
In the experiment of rolling a $6$-sided die, classify the following events into elementary, compound, certain or impossible:
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$A = $ "rolling a $4$"
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$B = $ "rolling a number greater than $6$"
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$C = $ "rolling an even number"
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$D = $ "rolling a number less than $10$"
Given the sample space $E = \{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8\}$ and the events $A = \{2, 4, 6, 8\}$ and $B = \{1, 2, 3, 4\}$, determine the elements that form the events…
Given the sample space $E = \{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8\}$ and the events $A = \{2, 4, 6, 8\}$ and $B = \{1, 2, 3, 4\}$, determine the elements that form the events $A \cup B$ and $A \cap B$.
Consider the experiment of drawing a card from a Spanish deck of $40$ cards. Indicate whether the events $A = $ "drawing a face card" and $B = $ "drawing a coin" are…
Consider the experiment of drawing a card from a Spanish deck of $40$ cards. Indicate whether the events $A = $ "drawing a face card" and $B = $ "drawing a coin" are compatible or incompatible. Justify your answer.
Equally Likely Outcomes
Back to Marcus: his shuffle picks each song with the same chance, so $P(\text{favorite artist}) = \dfrac{5}{20} = \dfrac{1}{4}$.
In a toolbox there are $12$ screws, $8$ nuts and $5$ nails. If a piece is extracted at random, calculate the probability that it is a nut.
In a toolbox there are $12$ screws, $8$ nuts and $5$ nails. If a piece is extracted at random, calculate the probability that it is a nut.
A card is drawn at random from a Spanish deck of $40$ cards. Calculate the probability of obtaining a knight.
A card is drawn at random from a Spanish deck of $40$ cards. Calculate the probability of obtaining a knight.
A fairground spinner is divided into $8$ equal circular sectors, numbered from $1$ to $8$. Calculate the probability that, when spun, the arrow stops on a multiple of…
A fairground spinner is divided into $8$ equal circular sectors, numbered from $1$ to $8$. Calculate the probability that, when spun, the arrow stops on a multiple of $3$.
The Complement Rule
The complement is a big shortcut for "at least one" questions: it is often easier to count the outcomes where the thing never happens.
A fair cubic die with faces numbered from $1$ to $6$ is rolled. Determine the elements that form the complementary event to "rolling a number less than $3$" and…
A fair cubic die with faces numbered from $1$ to $6$ is rolled. Determine the elements that form the complementary event to "rolling a number less than $3$" and calculate its probability.
In an animal shelter, $40\%$ of the dogs are large, $35\%$ are medium-sized and the rest are small. If a dog is selected at random for a walk, calculate the probability…
In an animal shelter, $40\%$ of the dogs are large, $35\%$ are medium-sized and the rest are small. If a dog is selected at random for a walk, calculate the probability that it is not medium-sized.
In a draw, a ball is extracted from a drum containing $100$ balls numbered from $1$ to $100$. Calculate the probability that the number of the extracted ball contains at…
In a draw, a ball is extracted from a drum containing $100$ balls numbered from $1$ to $100$. Calculate the probability that the number of the extracted ball contains at least one digit $7$.
Unknowns and Unequal Outcomes
Sometimes the probability is given and a number in the experiment is unknown. Write an equation and solve it. Other times the outcomes are not equally likely. Then use this fact: the probabilities of all the simple outcomes add to $1$.
A six-sided die is biased so that the probability of rolling an even face is twice the probability of rolling an odd face. Knowing that all even faces have the same…
A six-sided die is biased so that the probability of rolling an even face is twice the probability of rolling an odd face. Knowing that all even faces have the same probability as each other, and the same occurs with the odd faces, calculate the exact probability of rolling a $6$.
In an urn there are $x$ red balls and $6$ white balls. If it is known that the probability of extracting a red ball at random is $\frac{2}{5}$, set up an equation and…
In an urn there are $x$ red balls and $6$ white balls. If it is known that the probability of extracting a red ball at random is $\frac{2}{5}$, set up an equation and determine the total number of balls in the urn.
Counting Outcomes
When an experiment has several steps, list the outcomes in an organized way (a table or a list) so you do not miss any.
Two dice. Treat the dice as different (say, one red and one blue). Then there are $6 \times 6 = 36$ equally likely outcomes. This table shows the sum for each pair:
| + | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
Two fair cubic dice are rolled simultaneously and the sum of the scores obtained on the upper faces is recorded. Calculate the probability that the sum is exactly $8$.
Two fair cubic dice are rolled simultaneously and the sum of the scores obtained on the upper faces is recorded. Calculate the probability that the sum is exactly $8$.
Three fair coins are tossed simultaneously. Describe the sample space and calculate the probability of obtaining exactly two heads.
Three fair coins are tossed simultaneously. Describe the sample space and calculate the probability of obtaining exactly two heads.
To access a safe, a $3$-digit numerical code must be entered (from $000$ to $999$). A thief, who does not know the code, tries a number at random. Calculate the…
To access a safe, a $3$-digit numerical code must be entered (from $000$ to $999$). A thief, who does not know the code, tries a number at random. Calculate the probability that the entered code has all three digits identical.
Experimental Probability
Sometimes there is no way to list equally likely outcomes, such as a basketball player's free throws or a factory's defective parts. Then we estimate the probability from data.
A basketball player has taken $80$ free throws during the season, scoring $64$ of them. Using the relative frequency as an estimate of the probability, what is the…
A basketball player has taken $80$ free throws during the season, scoring $64$ of them. Using the relative frequency as an estimate of the probability, what is the probability that he misses his next free throw?
In an electronic components factory, a quality control inspects a batch of $500$ pieces. After the inspection, $15$ defective pieces have been found. If a customer…
In an electronic components factory, a quality control inspects a batch of $500$ pieces. After the inspection, $15$ defective pieces have been found. If a customer chooses a piece at random from that batch, what is the probability that it works correctly?
Geometric Probability
If a dart lands at a random point of a target, there are infinitely many points, so we cannot count outcomes. But equal areas are equally likely, so we compare areas.
A circular target is formed by three concentric circles of radii $10\text{ cm}$, $20\text{ cm}$ and $30\text{ cm}$. If a dart hits at random any point on the target…
A circular target is formed by three concentric circles of radii $10\text{ cm}$, $20\text{ cm}$ and $30\text{ cm}$. If a dart hits at random any point on the target (guaranteeing that it always hits inside the largest circle), calculate the probability that it lands in the intermediate circular ring (the area between the radius of $10\text{ cm}$ and that of $20\text{ cm}$).
The Addition Rule: A or B
Knowing that the probability of an event $A$ occurring is $P(A) = \frac{9}{20}$, the probability of an event $B$ occurring is $P(B) = \frac{3}{10}$ and the probability…
Knowing that the probability of an event $A$ occurring is $P(A) = \frac{9}{20}$, the probability of an event $B$ occurring is $P(B) = \frac{3}{10}$ and the probability of both occurring at the same time is $P(A \cap B) = \frac{1}{10}$, calculate the probability of at least one of the two events occurring.
Tokens with each of the letters of the word $ESPECTACULO$ are placed in an urn. If a token is extracted at random, calculate the probability that the extracted letter is…
Tokens with each of the letters of the word $ESPECTACULO$ are placed in an urn. If a token is extracted at random, calculate the probability that the extracted letter is a vowel or the letter $C$.
There are two mutually exclusive events $A$ and $B$ of the same random experiment. Knowing that the probability that $A$ does not occur is $P(\overline{A}) = 0.7$ and…
There are two mutually exclusive events $A$ and $B$ of the same random experiment. Knowing that the probability that $A$ does not occur is $P(\overline{A}) = 0.7$ and the probability that at least one of the two occurs is $P(A \cup B) = 0.8$, calculate the probability that event $B$ occurs.
Venn Diagrams and Counts
When a problem gives counts of people in two groups, a Venn diagram keeps everything organized. Fill in the middle (the overlap) first, then the outer parts, and use "neither" to check the total.
Two useful consequences of the addition rule:
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$P(A \cap B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cup B)$
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$P(A \text{ but not } B) = P(A) - P(A \cap B)$
The diagram agrees: $14 + 8 + 10 + 8 = 40$. Soccer has $14 + 8 = 22$ and basketball has $8 + 10 = 18$.
In a class of $30$ students, $18$ practice swimming, $15$ practice tennis and $5$ do not practice either of the two sports. If a student is chosen at random, calculate…
In a class of $30$ students, $18$ practice swimming, $15$ practice tennis and $5$ do not practice either of the two sports. If a student is chosen at random, calculate the probability that they practice both sports simultaneously.
A survey of $200$ customers of a café reveals that $120$ have coffee, $90$ have toast and $40$ have neither. If a customer is chosen at random, calculate the probability…
A survey of $200$ customers of a café reveals that $120$ have coffee, $90$ have toast and $40$ have neither. If a customer is chosen at random, calculate the probability that the customer has coffee but DOES NOT have toast.
Let $A$ and $B$ be two events of a random experiment such that $P(A) = \frac{1}{2}$, $P(B) = \frac{1}{3}$ and $P(A \cup B) = \frac{3}{4}$. Using the properties of…
Let $A$ and $B$ be two events of a random experiment such that $P(A) = \frac{1}{2}$, $P(B) = \frac{1}{3}$ and $P(A \cup B) = \frac{3}{4}$. Using the properties of probability, calculate the probability of the complementary event of the intersection, that is, $P(\overline{A \cap B})$.
Back to the start: Marcus's playlist has $5$ favorite-artist songs out of $20$, so $P(\text{favorite artist}) = \tfrac{5}{20} = \tfrac{1}{4}$, and by the complement rule the chance of someone else is $\tfrac{3}{4}$.